We Just Witnessed the S&P 500 Do Something for Only the 14th Time Since 1988 -- and This Event Has an 85% Success Rate of Forecasting Future Stock Returns

A historically big bounce for Wall Street's benchmark index has been a precursor to outsized returns.

May 6, 2025 - 08:18
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We Just Witnessed the S&P 500 Do Something for Only the 14th Time Since 1988 -- and This Event Has an 85% Success Rate of Forecasting Future Stock Returns

Though there are a number of ways to grow your wealth, including buying real estate, purchasing commodities, or tucking your money into a Treasury bond, none of these other asset classes has come remotely close to matching the annualized return of stocks over the last century.

While stocks are known for delivering outsized average annual returns over extended periods, their short-term performance is anything but predictable, as the last five weeks have demonstrated.

Since Wall Street's benchmark index, the S&P 500 (SNPINDEX: ^GSPC), notched its all-time closing high on Feb. 19, we've witnessed it and the Dow Jones Industrial Average (DJINDICES: ^DJI) careen into correction territory, with the growth-fueled Nasdaq Composite (NASDAQINDEX: ^IXIC) entering its first bear market since 2022.

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