Joby Aviation (NYSE: JOBY): 1st Quarter Earnings Are Out

Joby Aviation reported its Q1 2025 results, highlighting significant strides in aircraft certification and strategic partnerships. The company achieved record progress in certifying its electric air taxis, marking a second consecutive quarter of advancements. Joby also transitioned to routine pilot-on-board flights, a crucial step towards FAA flight testing. Financially, Joby ended the quarter with $813 million in cash and investments, excluding a $500 million commitment from Toyota. The company appointed Rodrigo Brumana as CFO, bringing his extensive experience from tech giants like Amazon and eBay. Furthermore, Joby expanded its manufacturing capabilities, with a new facility in Marina, CA, and announced a partnership with Virgin Atlantic to launch air taxi services in the UK. Despite these operational advancements, the company continues to operate at a net loss, reflecting ongoing investments in R&D and infrastructure.

Joby enters earnings with investors laser-focused on progress toward FAA certification and commercial launch milestones. While revenue remains negligible, management commentary on production ramp-up in Marina and Dayton, and flight testing updates, will likely drive sentiment. Any signals around DoD partnerships or commercial service timelines could trigger post-earnings volatility.

Bull Case:
Joby bulls are energized by FAA certification momentum and international rollout. With FAA Stage 4 completed and its Dubai launch scheduled for mid-2025, Joby is leading the eVTOL pack in both the U.S. and abroad. Analysts at Raymond James and Canaccord cite its manufacturing capacity (one aircraft/month) and $933M cash buffer as signs it can fund its path to launch.

Bear Case:
On the flip side, skeptics see a pre-revenue company with no clear commercialization date. EPS misses in recent quarters (e.g., Q4 miss of -$0.34 vs. -$0.19) and ongoing burn raise concerns. Delays in FAA or Dubai testing could derail the stock’s momentum. And with a price target spread of $4.00 to $11.50, there’s significant uncertainty baked in

Joby Aviation is entering a critical execution phase, and Q1 2025 earnings may provide the clearest signal yet on whether its commercial air taxi vision is within reach. Though still pre-revenue, the company is aiming to begin TIA flight testing within the next 12 months—a final step before FAA certification.

The update investors will be watching most? The planned deployment of a Joby aircraft to Dubai by mid-year, ahead of potential passenger flights as early as late 2025. That milestone, supported by a new vertiport and strong government buy-in, underscores Joby’s strategy of building international momentum even before U.S. approval is finalized.

Back in the U.S., Joby continues working with the Department of Defense, having delivered a second aircraft to Edwards Air Force Base. Its manufacturing facility in Marina, California, is now producing parts at a rate of one aircraft per month, with 95% of composite parts meeting FAA conformity standards.

With $933M in cash and new funding tranches expected from Toyota, Joby has the balance sheet to survive—and possibly lead—the commercial eVTOL race. This print will be more about signals than sales, but the signals could be game-changing.

Still pre-revenue, Joby’s consensus metrics remain narrow, with most analysts modeling R&D costs and operational burn as key KPIs.

• Q1 2025 Revenue Estimate: $0.1 million

• Q1 2025 EPS Estimate: –$0.14

• Full-Year Revenue: Street expects $0.8–1.0 million, tied to limited defense delivery

• Cash Burn Forecast (Q1): ~$80–90 million

Investors are not expecting revenue — they’re expecting realism. If Joby can reaffirm 2025 commercial launch guidance, give clarity on vehicle manufacturing cadence, and keep its cash burn below Street models, bulls will stay engaged. But any timeline drift could pressure a stock still trading largely on future potential.

1. Dual-Use Military Applications – Revenue Surprise Potential?
Joby’s Department of Defense engagements, particularly its aircraft delivery to Edwards AFB, are typically overlooked in Wall Street estimates. If management signals expanding military use cases or additional government contracts, this could unlock a whole new valuation narrative.

2. Global Strategy in Focus – U.K. and Asia Expansion Clues
Look for any updates on international commercial launches (e.g., U.K. with Virgin Atlantic). Comments around regulatory pathways abroad could preview where JOBY scales first—and how fast.

3. Cash Burn Trajectory vs. Certification Timelines
Burn rate matters more than revenue for JOBY today. Investors will parse any narrowing of the FAA certification timeline against cash balance changes to gauge whether further capital raises are likely.

Joby shares are pushing higher before dropping 1st quarter earnings after the market closes today.

With a $5.08B market cap and no meaningful revenue yet, Joby is still firmly in pre-commercial mode. But it remains a market favorite thanks to meaningful progress toward FAA Type Certification and strategic partnerships with both the U.S. Department of Defense and Delta Airlines.

In 2024, the company began piloted flights and initiated low-rate production. Investors have responded favorably to its steady execution, and its $924M cash balance provides multi-year flexibility. As we head into Q1, the market is watching for updates on launch cities, regulatory milestones, and continued validation of the business model.