Prediction: 1 Retail Stock Set to Overtake Costco By 2030

Recession concerns and low consumer spending affect multiple industries, including retail. When consumers tighten their wallets, they cut down on unnecessary purchases, which leads to a drop in revenue for retail giants. However, Costco Wholesale Corp. (NASDAQ: COST) has remained strong and sturdy during several market ups and downs. A highly successful business, Costco is still expanding and has massive growth potential. 

As of writing, the company has a market cap of $440 billion and is the world’s third-biggest retailer. The company enjoys steady revenue and has a massive product assortment which allows it to enter new markets and enjoy pricing power. The company has grown due to consumer loyalty and it continues to sell top quality goods at low prices. 

This is a winning combo that will keep attracting consumers. However, there’s one company that can give solid competition to Costco’s business and overtake it in the next five years. I believe Home Depot (NYSE:HD) has the right valuation, a massive market, and the right strategy to beat Costco in the long term. While Costco focuses on general merchandise, Home Depot offers DIY products and home improvement products for professionals. It has 2,347 stores and is a clear leader in the segment. 

Atlanta-based Home Depot has a market cap of $356.82 billion and is a leading home improvement retailer. The company has stores across the United States, Mexico, and Canada and offers a wide range of home improvement products. 

It is set to announce results on May 20 and analysts expect an EPS of $3.59, down only 1.1%. Home Depot has managed to beat expectations in the last four quarters. Investors are concerned about the impact of tariffs on Home Depot and President Trump recently held a meeting with several retailers including Home Depot with regard to the impact of tariffs on the business. 

The company reported fourth-quarter sales of $39.7 billion, up 14.1% year-over-year and an EPS of $3.02. It saw a 1.3% jump in comparable U.S. sales and announced a 2.2% increase in the quarterly dividend. The management is aiming for a sales growth of 2.8% in 2025 and plans to add 13 new stores. 

Trading at $359, Home Depot stock is down 7.58% year-to-date and 8.83% in six months. The stock is gradually moving above the 52-week low of $323, making it an ideal buy. It is also a dividend stock with a yield of 2.56%. 

The brand carries weight and its investments in omnichannel service are paying off. Demand for home improvement products will be impacted in case of a recession and Home Depot might also see the significant impact of tariffs, but in the long run, the company will undoubtedly recover. Consumers may choose to push a costly renovation project but some projects can only be delayed for a certain period of time. 

The overall industry will favor Home Depot in the coming years. The home improvement industry is massive and the homes across the U.S. are getting older, which will require more updates. This is going to help the company in the long run. 

Today, Costco is a superior business as compared to Home Depot but by 2030, Home Depot will become a better investment. Both are likely to be impacted by tariffs but Home Depot offers products that meet the needs of all homeowners in the long-term. When it comes to the valuation, Home Depot looks attractive with a P/E ratio of 24, much below Costco’s 57.79. While Costco has a dividend yield of 0.53%, Home Depot boasts a much higher yield at 2.56%. 

Costco shares are too expensive at the current level while Home Depot’s are about 50% cheaper. All factors considered, Home Depot is a better choice. 

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