Who Is Going To Give IBM The Bad News?

IBM has been one of the first tech companies to say it would lay off workers because of AI. The media put the number at 8,000. CEO Arvind Krishna said AI would replace some HR workers. Overall, IBM plans to put money to work adding programmers and salesmen. It doesn’t matter. IBM is so badly battered that no amount of AI advance is going to improve its crippled situation.

International Business Machines Corporation (NYSE: IBM) was one of America’s greatest, if not its greatest, tech companies. Founded in 1911, it had among the most outstanding CEOs in tech history, led by Thomas J. Watson and Louis V. Gerstner, Jr. In 1980, it ranked No.4 on the Fortune 500. A shadow of what it was, IBM is among the worst tech tragedies over the last several decades. The last decade is proof that IBM has permanently fallen apart.

For IBM, a quarter with flat revenues year over the previous year is an earnings victory. In the most recent quarter, revenue was up 1% to $14.5 billion. EPS fell 33% to $1.1 billion. Each is a rounding number for America’s big tech companies.

IBM’s market cap is $261 billion. The market caps of Apple (NASDAQ: AAPL), Amazon (NASDAQ: AMZN), and Nvidia (NASDAQ: NVDA) are over ten times that. Alphabet is close to the same multiple. There is a reason for this. For example, Microsoft’s (NASDAQ: MSFT) revenue in the most recent quarter was $70.1 billion, up 13% from the same quarter the year before. EPS rose 15% to $2.46. Microsoft’s net income for the period was $25.8 billion. Microsoft has a smaller revenue than Apple, Amazon, and Alphabet.

The list of large tech IBM lost out on is long. Among them are search, cloud computing, computer operating systems, e-commerce, and AI chips. Each of these leaders began as a small company when IBM was bigger.

If cloud computing is among the key metrics for the success of big tech, AWS has a 30% global market share, Microsoft’s share is 21%, and Google’s is 12%. IBM’s is 2%

If AI is the future of global technology, the Magnificent Seven and OpenAI are the leaders, and IBM does not appear on anyone’s list. IBM CEO Arvind Krishna continues to talk about his company’s AI success. For now, the talk is led by a discussion of layoffs.

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