Trump’s Cuts Tariffs on Phones: How Much Could Apple (Nasdaq: AAPL) Stock Soar On Monday?

Stock futures open Sunday night at 6 p.m. and I have a not-so-bold prediction that Apple investors will be very happy with jump in Apple‘s (Nasdaq: AAPL) share price. 

The big news on Saturday is that Donald Trump is exempting smartphones and computers from reciprocal tariffs. That’s big news for Apple, which at one point had dropped 22% in five days amidst fears of a trade war intensifying with China.

Let’s look at the news this weekend and how much it might impact Apple’s share price come the market open on Monday. 

Trump U-Turns on Tariffs 

This week saw off-the-chart volatility as tariff headlines consumed the media. After Trump announced reciprocal tariffs on April 2nd, the market began a historic sell-off. That sell-off accelerated on Monday and Tuesday before Trump announced on Truth Social Wednesday afternoon that there would be a 90-day pause on tariffs. 

That news sent stocks soaring, with the Nasdaq gaining 12.16% on Wednesday. However, on Thursday, the rally suddenly stopped. 

One reason Wednesday’s rally didn’t continue into Thursday was that Trump’s 90-day pause included even further tariffs on China, raising rates to 145%. That meant that while Trump would negotiate with other countries, a protracted trade war with China looked more likely. 

However, today the Administration exempted smartphones, computers, semiconductors, solar cells, flat panel TV displays, and other electronics items from these high tariff rates. 

That’s important for two reasons:

• First of all, this move could be seen as an ‘olive branch’ of sorts directed at China. The country’s number one export to the United States (22% of its total) is consumer electronics. Those items are now largely exempted from tariffs. That should be broadly ‘bullish’ for stocks as it signals Trump continues to de-escalate the trade war that looked likely last week. 
• Second, the removal of tariffs on electronics removes a huge uncertainty for stocks like Apple. For example, just last week Apple reportedly was scrambling to fly 747s across the Pacific filled with iPhones to beat Chinese tariff rates going into effect. The company could move some capacity to India, but not enough to supply the level of demand from the United States. 

How Much Could Apple’s Stock Rise on Monday?

Come tomorrow night at 6 p.m. we’ll have our first clue how much Apple’s stock could rise come Monday. That’s when futures trading will resume.

What’s an educated guess on the gains Apple could see? Broadly, I would expect somewhere between 2 and 10% gains. 

One thing to keep in mind is that Apple’s stock already rose 4% on Friday (more on that below), so some positive news may have already been priced in. 

Apple was trading for about $247 per share before tariffs became the dominant market storyline. The company’s low point was closing at $172 per share on Thursday, and it closed Friday trading for $198. 

It’s unrealistic to expect Apple to trade back to $247 in the near term as its share price has been declining because of tariff fears and the increased risk of a consumer pullback on spending. 

So, if Apple were to rise 10% on Monday, it would trade closer to $220 per share. That’s the price it was trading at on April 2nd, the day Trump announced his reciprocal tariffs after market close. 

Could Apple close back to that level with plenty of uncertainty remaining? That seems like a big jump, but it’s not out of the question. Overall, I’d expect the most likely scenario is that Apple closes Monday trading at around $210 per share, or about a 6% gain. 

Did Insiders Know?

One question that could attract attention this week is whether insiders knew a deal was in the works to remove smartphones and computer tariffs. 

After all, Apple stock was up 4% Friday on little news. Lobbying from technology CEOs and insiders almost certainly factored into Trump’s decision, so some information may have leaked out that he was being swayed to make a decision. In addition, options flow on Apple’s stock was reportedly extremely bullish on Friday. 

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