These Countries Could Hurt the US the Most in a Trade War

President Donald Trump’s recently implemented tariffs represent a break from decades of economic precedent. In the years leading up to Trump’s first term in office, goods imported to the U.S. were taxed at an average rate of between 2% and 4%. Now, in the early months of his second term, Trump has enacted a minimum 10% tariff on every country, and even higher rates for certain goods from many of America’s biggest trading partners — including Canada, China, and Mexico.

24/7 Wall St. Key Points:

• During his second term, President Trump is using tariffs, ostensibly, to bring back manufacturing and revitalize the U.S. economy. 
• Should a full-blown trade war develop between the U.S. and many of its key trading partners, however, American companies could lose billions of dollars in foreign markets.
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Contrary to the analysis of many economists, President Trump, and those in his administration, maintain that tariffs are a necessary means of reshoring American manufacturing, reducing the national debt, revitalizing the U.S. economy. While it may be years until the efficacy of the president’s policies become clear, many negative byproducts have already become evident.

The costs associated with tariffs are ultimately passed down to the consumer, and according to some estimates, Trump’s newly instated import taxes could reduce the purchasing power of an average American household by as much as $3,800 a year. Not only will tariffs raise the cost of living, but the uncertainty surrounding them has undermined investor confidence. The S&P 500 index plummeted by over 12% within a week of the president’s tariff announcements. (Here is a look at the Americans who approve of Trump’s economic policies in the wake of sweeping tariff announcements.)

These immediate consequences may prove to be only the tip of the ice berg in the coming months. Several countries have already retaliated against the U.S. by imposing their own tariffs on imported American goods — and should more follow suit, the United States could be engaged in an all-out trade war with much of the world. In such a scenario, tit-for-tat retaliations could conceivably drive tariff rates high enough to render American products prohibitively expensive in much of the world.

While the U.S. economy is not as trade dependent as that of many other countries, the total value of U.S. goods exported to foreign markets totaled a whopping $1.9 trillion in 2023 alone.

Using data from the Observatory of Economic Complexity, 24/7 Wall St. identified the countries that buy the most American goods. Countries are ranked on the total value of products imported from the United States in 2023. Supplemental data on gross domestic product and GDP per capita in 2023 are from the World Bank and are expressed in current U.S. dollars.

The 31 countries on this list bought over $1.6 trillion in American-made products in 2023, accounting for nearly 90% of the value of exported, American-made products that year. Individually, these countries bought anywhere from $11 billion to $269 billion in U.S. exports in 2023.

The highest ranking countries on this list — those that could do the most damage to the U.S. economy in the event of a trade war — include those that have been targeted by the Trump administration’s highest tariff rates. Canada and Mexico, for example, are America’s largest trading partners, and certain goods from these countries are now subject to a 25% tariff. In response, Canada has already imposed their own reciprocal tariffs on certain American-made products.

The most extreme tariffs, however, have been reserved for China, the largest consumer of U.S. exports outside of North America. Currently, Chinese products are being taxed at a rate of 145% — and, as of early April, China has responded by imposing tariffs on American imports at a rate of 84%. (Here is a look at the countries with the lowest tariff rates.)

These are the countries where the United States has the most to lose in a trade war.

Why It Matters

Breaking from decades of precedent, President Donald Trump has implemented sweeping tariffs on American trading partners. According to the Trump administration, these tariffs are a necessary means of bringing back American manufacturing and revitalizing the U.S. economy. Regardless of whether or not import taxes will ultimately achieve the president’s stated goals, Trump’s tariff policies have already rattled Wall Street and will likely increase the cost of living for most Americans. And, should the president’s tariffs result in a tit-for-tat trade war with certain trading partners, the economic damage inflicted so far could only be the tip of the ice berg.

31. Indonesia

• Total value of imports from the U.S. in 2023: $11.0 billion (0.6% of total value of U.S. exports)
• GDP in 2023: $1.4 trillion
• GDP per capita in 2023: $4,876
• Country location: South-eastern Asia

30. Peru

• Total value of imports from the U.S. in 2023: $11.1 billion (0.6% of total value of U.S. exports)
• GDP in 2023: $267.6 billion
• GDP per capita in 2023: $7,907
• Country location: South America

29. Dominican Republic

• Total value of imports from the U.S. in 2023: $12.2 billion (0.7% of total value of U.S. exports)
• GDP in 2023: $121.4 billion
• GDP per capita in 2023: $10,718
• Country location: Caribbean

28. Poland

• Total value of imports from the U.S. in 2023: $14.5 billion (0.8% of total value of U.S. exports)
• GDP in 2023: $809.2 billion
• GDP per capita in 2023: $22,057
• Country location: Eastern Europe (including Northern Asia)

27. Saudi Arabia

• Total value of imports from the U.S. in 2023: $14.7 billion (0.8% of total value of U.S. exports)
• GDP in 2023: $1.1 trillion
• GDP per capita in 2023: $32,094
• Country location: Western Asia

26. Colombia

• Total value of imports from the U.S. in 2023: $16.0 billion (0.9% of total value of U.S. exports)
• GDP in 2023: $363.5 billion
• GDP per capita in 2023: $6,947
• Country location: South America

25. Turkey

• Total value of imports from the U.S. in 2023: $16.6 billion (0.9% of total value of U.S. exports)
• GDP in 2023: N/A
• GDP per capita in 2023: N/A
• Country location: Western Asia

24. Chile

• Total value of imports from the U.S. in 2023: $17.2 billion (0.9% of total value of U.S. exports)
• GDP in 2023: $335.5 billion
• GDP per capita in 2023: $17,068
• Country location: South America

23. Thailand

• Total value of imports from the U.S. in 2023: $18.4 billion (1.0% of total value of U.S. exports)
• GDP in 2023: $515.0 billion
• GDP per capita in 2023: $7,182
• Country location: South-eastern Asia

22. Malaysia

• Total value of imports from the U.S. in 2023: $18.9 billion (1.0% of total value of U.S. exports)
• GDP in 2023: $399.7 billion
• GDP per capita in 2023: $11,379
• Country location: South-eastern Asia

21. Ireland

• Total value of imports from the U.S. in 2023: $24.1 billion (1.3% of total value of U.S. exports)
• GDP in 2023: $551.4 billion
• GDP per capita in 2023: $103,888
• Country location: Northern Europe

20. United Arab Emirates

• Total value of imports from the U.S. in 2023: $24.6 billion (1.3% of total value of U.S. exports)
• GDP in 2023: $514.1 billion
• GDP per capita in 2023: $49,041
• Country location: Western Asia

19. Hong Kong

• Total value of imports from the U.S. in 2023: $26.1 billion (1.4% of total value of U.S. exports)
• GDP in 2023: N/A
• GDP per capita in 2023: N/A
• Country location: Eastern Asia

18. Italy

• Total value of imports from the U.S. in 2023: $26.5 billion (1.4% of total value of U.S. exports)
• GDP in 2023: $2.3 trillion
• GDP per capita in 2023: $39,003
• Country location: Southern Europe

17. Belgium

• Total value of imports from the U.S. in 2023: $28.6 billion (1.5% of total value of U.S. exports)
• GDP in 2023: $644.8 billion
• GDP per capita in 2023: $54,701
• Country location: Western Europe

16. Spain

• Total value of imports from the U.S. in 2023: $29.9 billion (1.6% of total value of U.S. exports)
• GDP in 2023: $1.6 trillion
• GDP per capita in 2023: $33,509
• Country location: Southern Europe

15. Australia

• Total value of imports from the U.S. in 2023: $31.9 billion (1.7% of total value of U.S. exports)
• GDP in 2023: $1.7 trillion
• GDP per capita in 2023: $64,821
• Country location: Australia and New Zealand

14. Switzerland

• Total value of imports from the U.S. in 2023: $32.6 billion (1.8% of total value of U.S. exports)
• GDP in 2023: $884.9 billion
• GDP per capita in 2023: $99,565
• Country location: Western Europe

13. Chinese Taipei

• Total value of imports from the U.S. in 2023: $35.8 billion (1.9% of total value of U.S. exports)
• GDP in 2023: N/A
• GDP per capita in 2023: N/A
• Country location: Eastern Asia

12. Brazil

• Total value of imports from the U.S. in 2023: $39.9 billion (2.1% of total value of U.S. exports)
• GDP in 2023: $2.2 trillion
• GDP per capita in 2023: $10,295
• Country location: South America

11. India

• Total value of imports from the U.S. in 2023: $41.4 billion (2.2% of total value of U.S. exports)
• GDP in 2023: $3.6 trillion
• GDP per capita in 2023: $2,481
• Country location: Southern Asia

10. France

• Total value of imports from the U.S. in 2023: $42.9 billion (2.3% of total value of U.S. exports)
• GDP in 2023: $3.1 trillion
• GDP per capita in 2023: $44,691
• Country location: Western Europe

9. Singapore

• Total value of imports from the U.S. in 2023: $43.2 billion (2.3% of total value of U.S. exports)
• GDP in 2023: $501.4 billion
• GDP per capita in 2023: $84,734
• Country location: South-eastern Asia

8. South Korea

• Total value of imports from the U.S. in 2023: $61.3 billion (3.3% of total value of U.S. exports)
• GDP in 2023: $1.7 trillion
• GDP per capita in 2023: $33,121
• Country location: Eastern Asia

7. Netherlands

• Total value of imports from the U.S. in 2023: $63.7 billion (3.4% of total value of U.S. exports)
• GDP in 2023: $1.2 trillion
• GDP per capita in 2023: $64,572
• Country location: Western Europe

6. United Kingdom

• Total value of imports from the U.S. in 2023: $78.3 billion (4.2% of total value of U.S. exports)
• GDP in 2023: $3.4 trillion
• GDP per capita in 2023: $49,464
• Country location: Northern Europe

5. Japan

• Total value of imports from the U.S. in 2023: $80.2 billion (4.3% of total value of U.S. exports)
• GDP in 2023: $4.2 trillion
• GDP per capita in 2023: $33,767
• Country location: Eastern Asia

4. Germany

• Total value of imports from the U.S. in 2023: $94.8 billion (5.1% of total value of U.S. exports)
• GDP in 2023: $4.5 trillion
• GDP per capita in 2023: $54,343
• Country location: Western Europe

3. China

• Total value of imports from the U.S. in 2023: $153.6 billion (8.3% of total value of U.S. exports)
• GDP in 2023: $17.8 trillion
• GDP per capita in 2023: $12,614
• Country location: Eastern Asia

2. Mexico

• Total value of imports from the U.S. in 2023: $243.4 billion (13.1% of total value of U.S. exports)
• GDP in 2023: $1.8 trillion
• GDP per capita in 2023: $13,790
• Country location: Central America

1. Canada

• Total value of imports from the U.S. in 2023: $269.2 billion (14.5% of total value of U.S. exports)
• GDP in 2023: $2.1 trillion
• GDP per capita in 2023: $53,431
• Country location: Northern America

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