Am I Crazy for Considering Early Retirement Amid Layoffs and Market Uncertainty?

Layoffs and market uncertainty have weighed heavily on millions of workers in recent years. Whether we’re talking about the economic impact of tariffs or the rise of digital labor (AI-induced automation) and the impact on human jobs, things arguably haven’t been this uncertain in recent memory.

Indeed, the one-two punch of unknowns (AI and Trump tariffs) is enough to give many folks pause as they stay put in their careers. Of course, there’s no way to know what lies ahead or how profound the disruptive impact of AI automation and tariffs stands to be.

And while harder times could mean curtains on the FIRE (Financial Independence, Retire Early) movement, at least for many young people who’ve been shooting for the ambitious milestone, I don’t think it makes all too much sense to give up hope on such a plan if one’s already on the right track.

Headwinds could linger for longer. Is FIRE still realistic?

Does that mean AI can’t derail one en route to lean, moderate, or chubby FIRE?

Of course not. However, the ability to adapt, I believe, will allow people to persevere in the face of the so-called fourth industrial revolution. Of course, re-skilling is much easier said than done, especially when AI forces are hard at work while the “learn how to code” phrase no longer applies in an era where AI models are becoming powerful enough to contribute more to the codebases of big tech. 

In any case, having a backup plan is always a good idea. And while one doesn’t need to have a concrete one today, I do think that staying cautious amid economic turbulence could continue to prove wise. Whether that entails putting FIRE plans on ice, shooting to have a cushier nest egg, or picking up new skills (learning how to prompt AI models effectively) to prepare for potentially devastating unknowns, there are ways to prepare for a rockier road.

It isn’t “crazy” to continue to aim for early retirement.

In my view, it’s not at all “crazy” to keep aiming to retire as the economy faces new threats, challenges, and profound technological shifts. On the contrary, it’s very shrewd for one to consider the wider range of potential outcomes as disruptive drivers are put to work in the latter half of this decade.

Indeed, I’d argue that it’s quite unrealistic, and even overly optimistic, to assume that the rise of digital labor, AI agents, physical AI (robots), and other automation technologies won’t displace some workers across a broad range of industries. At the end of the day, there’s no shame in being prepared for something that can happen overnight.

Of course, AI models and tools could remain more of an enhancer of workers in the medium term as AI-augmented employees experience a productivity boost of sorts. Either way, there’s bound to be some disruption in the labor force, whether the largest impact happens within a few years or more than a decade from now. Either way, staying on one’s toes while erring on the side of caution with finances seems like the right way to go as we move further into the unknown.

Being adaptable is vital.

Time will tell if the steady waves of layoffs continue into year’s end. Either way, one should be ready to get back on their feet and perhaps pause one’s FIRE plans if hit with an unexpected job loss. Additionally, future-proofing oneself with a better understanding of AI could pay major dividends in the present and the future.

Whether that’s knowing how to use ChatGPT effectively or gaining a more advanced understanding of the inning workings of large language models, agents, and all the sort, adaptability in the AI age, I believe, is key to those who still want to achieve early retirement.

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