Dangerous Conflicts Will Escalate In These Regions Next Month

24/7 Wall St. Insights

• The number of political violence events occurring around the world has nearly doubled over the past five years.
• Three conflicts — Ukraine, Gaza, and Myanmar — account for a bulk of the increase.
• Smaller, local conflicts in Sudan, Mexico, and other regions are also contributing to the rise in violence, and are forecast to worsen in April 2025.
• Also: Discover the next Nvidia

The past five years have seen a consistent uptick in political violence around the world. While the independent nonprofit Armed Conflict Location & Event Data (ACLED) recorded about 100,000 conflict events around the world in 2020, in 2024 the organization observed nearly 200,000.

Three large conflicts mostly account for the increase: Ukraine, Gaza, and Myanmar. But smaller conflicts like Sudan, Mexico, and Yemen are also contributing to the rise in violent conflict around the world. Experts predict that conflict event rates will continue to rise through 2025, forecasting double-digit percentage increases in violence and approximately 20,000 reported fatalities due to political violence per month. A closer look at ACLED data reveals the regions where dangerous conflicts are due to escalate next month.

To determine the regions where dangerous conflicts will escalate next month, 24/7 Wall St. reviewed data on forecast violent conflicts from the ACLED Conflict Alert System, a global prediction tool forecasting political violence events that will occur around the world every month. Regions were ranked based on the difference in the number of violent conflicts observed in February 2025 and the number of violent conflicts forecast for April 2025. Supplemental data on observed conflicts and fatalities are also from ACLED.

30. Rio de Janeiro, Brazil

• Violent conflicts forecast for April 2025: 175 events (+6 events from February 2025)
• Violent conflicts observed in February 2025: 169 events (58 fatalities)
• Violent conflicts observed in last 12 months: 2,340 events (923 fatalities)
• Deadliest conflicts of last 12 months: Attack in Rio de Janeiro – West Zone on April 15 (6 fatalities), armed clash in Rio de Janeiro – West Zone on April 27 (6 fatalities), armed clash in Rio de Janeiro – West Zone on May 29 (6 fatalities), armed clash in Rio de Janeiro – West Zone on July 3 (6 fatalities), armed clash in Rio de Janeiro – North Zone on January 24 (6 fatalities)

29. Lattakia, Syria

• Violent conflicts forecast for April 2025: 30 events (+7 events from February 2025)
• Violent conflicts observed in February 2025: 23 events (18 fatalities)
• Violent conflicts observed in last 12 months: 442 events (1,294 fatalities)
• Deadliest conflicts of last 12 months: Attack in As-Senoubar on March 8 (80 fatalities), attack in Al Mukhtaria on March 9 (74 fatalities), attack in Lattakia on March 11 (59 fatalities), attack in Lattakia – Da’tor on March 8 (42 fatalities), attack in Al Mukhtaria on March 7 (38 fatalities)

28. Guerrero, Mexico

• Violent conflicts forecast for April 2025: 35 events (+7 events from February 2025)
• Violent conflicts observed in February 2025: 28 events (36 fatalities)
• Violent conflicts observed in last 12 months: 470 events (609 fatalities)
• Deadliest conflicts of last 12 months: Armed clash in Tecpan de Galeana on October 24 (19 fatalities), armed clash in Zirandaro de los Chavez on May 11 (16 fatalities), attack in Chilpancingo de los Bravo on November 6 (11 fatalities), armed clash in San Juan del Reparo on July 22 (7 fatalities), armed clash in Olinala on August 8 (7 fatalities)

27. Kayin, Myanmar

• Violent conflicts forecast for April 2025: 36 events (+7 events from February 2025)
• Violent conflicts observed in February 2025: 29 events (39 fatalities)
• Violent conflicts observed in last 12 months: 505 events (1,020 fatalities)
• Deadliest conflicts of last 12 months: Non-state actor overtakes territory in Thin Gan Nyi Naung on April 5 (55 fatalities), non-state actor overtakes territory in Myawaddy on April 10 (50 fatalities), armed clash in Kawkareik on April 20 (35 fatalities), armed clash in Kawkareik on April 21 (35 fatalities), armed clash in Kawkareik on April 19 (34 fatalities)

26. Magway, Myanmar

• Violent conflicts forecast for April 2025: 114 events (+7 events from February 2025)
• Violent conflicts observed in February 2025: 107 events (422 fatalities)
• Violent conflicts observed in last 12 months: 1,319 events (2,488 fatalities)
• Deadliest conflicts of last 12 months: Armed clash in Ngape on February 2 (200 fatalities), armed clash in Ngape on January 31 (60 fatalities), armed clash in Lel Hla on January 28 (31 fatalities), armed clash in Ngape on March 24 (30 fatalities), armed clash in Yesagyo on May 17 (30 fatalities)

25. Tabasco, Mexico

• Violent conflicts forecast for April 2025: 23 events (+8 events from February 2025)
• Violent conflicts observed in February 2025: 15 events (28 fatalities)
• Violent conflicts observed in last 12 months: 346 events (428 fatalities)
• Deadliest conflicts of last 12 months: Armed clash in Jalapa on April 17 (8 fatalities), mob violence in Villahermosa on December 19 (7 fatalities), attack in Villahermosa on January 4 (7 fatalities), attack in Estanzuela 1er seccion on January 14 (7 fatalities), mob violence in Villahermosa on February 4 (7 fatalities)

24. Luhansk, Ukraine

• Violent conflicts forecast for April 2025: 71 events (+8 events from February 2025)
• Violent conflicts observed in February 2025: 63 events (25 fatalities)
• Violent conflicts observed in last 12 months: 1,516 events (978 fatalities)
• Deadliest conflicts of last 12 months: Armed clash in Bilohorivka on May 19 (55 fatalities), armed clash in Bilohorivka on June 24 (21 fatalities), armed clash in Makiivka on June 8 (17 fatalities), armed clash in Hrekivka on June 8 (17 fatalities), armed clash in Makiivka on June 24 (17 fatalities)

23. Damascus, Syria

• Violent conflicts forecast for April 2025: 15 events (+9 events from February 2025)
• Violent conflicts observed in February 2025: 06 events (4 fatalities)
• Violent conflicts observed in last 12 months: 69 events (105 fatalities)
• Deadliest conflicts of last 12 months: Air/drone strike in Damascus – Mazzeh on April 1 (16 fatalities), air/drone strike in Damascus – Mazzeh on November 14 (13 fatalities), armed clash in Damascus on August 15 (10 fatalities), air/drone strike in Damascus – Mazzeh on October 8 (10 fatalities), air/drone strike in Damascus – Mazzeh on October 1 (8 fatalities)

22. Tartous, Syria

• Violent conflicts forecast for April 2025: 18 events (+9 events from February 2025)
• Violent conflicts observed in February 2025: 09 events (14 fatalities)
• Violent conflicts observed in last 12 months: 101 events (667 fatalities)
• Deadliest conflicts of last 12 months: Attack in Banyas on March 9 (94 fatalities), attack in Banyas on March 11 (62 fatalities), attack in Banyas on March 7 (60 fatalities), attack in Banyas on March 8 (46 fatalities), attack in Tartous on March 10 (42 fatalities)

21. As Sweida, Syria

• Violent conflicts forecast for April 2025: 16 events (+9 events from February 2025)
• Violent conflicts observed in February 2025: 07 events (3 fatalities)
• Violent conflicts observed in last 12 months: 131 events (60 fatalities)
• Deadliest conflicts of last 12 months: Other in Tal Asfar on January 28 (7 fatalities), non-state actor overtakes territory in As-Sweida on December 6 (4 fatalities), armed clash in As-Sweida on December 11 (4 fatalities), armed clash in Majadel on January 1 (4 fatalities), other in Khalkhla Airbase on January 29 (3 fatalities)

20. Morelos, Mexico

• Violent conflicts forecast for April 2025: 26 events (+9 events from February 2025)
• Violent conflicts observed in February 2025: 17 events (13 fatalities)
• Violent conflicts observed in last 12 months: 332 events (358 fatalities)
• Deadliest conflicts of last 12 months: Attack in Jiutepec on November 30 (10 fatalities), attack in Huitzilac on May 11 (8 fatalities), attack in Cuernavaca on September 19 (7 fatalities), attack in Temimilcingo on August 30 (5 fatalities), attack in Santiago Cuautlalpan on September 13 (5 fatalities)

19. Amhara, Ethiopia

• Violent conflicts forecast for April 2025: 77 events (+9 events from February 2025)
• Violent conflicts observed in February 2025: 68 events (198 fatalities)
• Violent conflicts observed in last 12 months: 1,491 events (6,200 fatalities)
• Deadliest conflicts of last 12 months: Attack in Ykaho on July 9 (80 fatalities), armed clash in Adet on October 8 (73 fatalities), armed clash in Yizora on August 16 (69 fatalities), armed clash in Feres Bet on April 15 (64 fatalities), armed clash in Debre Werk on April 13 (61 fatalities)

18. Quneitra, Syria

• Violent conflicts forecast for April 2025: 13 events (+10 events from February 2025)
• Violent conflicts observed in February 2025: 03 events ( fatalities)
• Violent conflicts observed in last 12 months: 688 events (57 fatalities)
• Deadliest conflicts of last 12 months: Shelling/artillery/missile attack in Majdal Shams on July 27 (12 fatalities), shelling/artillery/missile attack in Majdal Shams on July 27 (12 fatalities), air/drone strike in Ghadir al Bostan on January 15 (3 fatalities), remote explosive/landmine/IED in Tarnaja on March 4 (2 fatalities), remote explosive/landmine/IED in Nasiriya on June 11 (2 fatalities)

17. Chihuahua, Mexico

• Violent conflicts forecast for April 2025: 24 events (+10 events from February 2025)
• Violent conflicts observed in February 2025: 14 events (17 fatalities)
• Violent conflicts observed in last 12 months: 236 events (272 fatalities)
• Deadliest conflicts of last 12 months: Armed clash in Manuel Ojinaga on September 20 (11 fatalities), attack in Chihuahua on April 20 (10 fatalities), attack in Ciudad Juarez on April 24 (10 fatalities), armed clash in Coronado on September 16 (9 fatalities), armed clash in Nuevo Delicias on June 28 (6 fatalities)

16. Shan-South, Myanmar

• Violent conflicts forecast for April 2025: 35 events (+11 events from February 2025)
• Violent conflicts observed in February 2025: 24 events (30 fatalities)
• Violent conflicts observed in last 12 months: 496 events (705 fatalities)
• Deadliest conflicts of last 12 months: Armed clash in Hpyi Kyut on January 17 (100 fatalities), armed clash in Nyaung Lay Pin on April 13 (35 fatalities), armed clash in Nawng Kyaw on January 17 (30 fatalities), armed clash in Hsihseng on January 12 (21 fatalities), armed clash in Hsihseng on March 21 (20 fatalities)

15. Pernambuco, Brazil

• Violent conflicts forecast for April 2025: 26 events (+12 events from February 2025)
• Violent conflicts observed in February 2025: 14 events (23 fatalities)
• Violent conflicts observed in last 12 months: 596 events (594 fatalities)
• Deadliest conflicts of last 12 months: Attack in Recife on January 12 (7 fatalities), attack in Abreu e Lima on February 18 (6 fatalities), armed clash in Recife on March 9 (3 fatalities), armed clash in Jaboatao dos Guararapes on April 26 (3 fatalities), attack in Ilha de Itamaraca on July 19 (3 fatalities)

14. Idleb, Syria

• Violent conflicts forecast for April 2025: 25 events (+12 events from February 2025)
• Violent conflicts observed in February 2025: 13 events (20 fatalities)
• Violent conflicts observed in last 12 months: 1,585 events (517 fatalities)
• Deadliest conflicts of last 12 months: Armed clash in Sahyan on November 30 (75 fatalities), air/drone strike in Idleb on October 16 (11 fatalities), air/drone strike in Idleb on December 2 (11 fatalities), shelling/artillery/missile attack in Hantutin on March 5 (10 fatalities), shelling/artillery/missile attack in Al Burayj on March 28 (10 fatalities)

13. Hama, Syria

• Violent conflicts forecast for April 2025: 27 events (+12 events from February 2025)
• Violent conflicts observed in February 2025: 15 events (27 fatalities)
• Violent conflicts observed in last 12 months: 611 events (822 fatalities)
• Deadliest conflicts of last 12 months: Attack in Hama on March 10 (71 fatalities), attack in Ar-Rasafa on March 12 (62 fatalities), non-state actor overtakes territory in Khattab on December 4 (50 fatalities), attack in Tweim on March 8 (31 fatalities), attack in Arzeh on March 12 (22 fatalities)

12. North Darfur, Sudan

• Violent conflicts forecast for April 2025: 90 events (+14 events from February 2025)
• Violent conflicts observed in February 2025: 76 events (708 fatalities)
• Violent conflicts observed in last 12 months: 1,134 events (7,245 fatalities)
• Deadliest conflicts of last 12 months: Armed clash in El Fasher on November 17 (200 fatalities), armed clash in Madu on October 1 (163 fatalities), armed clash in El Fasher on August 10 (143 fatalities), armed clash in Saiyah on October 1 (113 fatalities), armed clash in Tagabu on October 1 (112 fatalities)

11. South, Lebanon

• Violent conflicts forecast for April 2025: 44 events (+16 events from February 2025)
• Violent conflicts observed in February 2025: 28 events (5 fatalities)
• Violent conflicts observed in last 12 months: 3,765 events (1,273 fatalities)
• Deadliest conflicts of last 12 months: Air/drone strike in Sinai on September 23 (60 fatalities), air/drone strike in El Babliye on September 23 (60 fatalities), air/drone strike in Saksakiyah on September 23 (60 fatalities), air/drone strike in Kharayeb on September 23 (60 fatalities), air/drone strike in Sarafand on September 23 (60 fatalities)

10. Bahia, Brazil

• Violent conflicts forecast for April 2025: 83 events (+16 events from February 2025)
• Violent conflicts observed in February 2025: 67 events (78 fatalities)
• Violent conflicts observed in last 12 months: 1,522 events (1,507 fatalities)
• Deadliest conflicts of last 12 months: Armed clash in Salvador on March 4 (12 fatalities), armed clash in Lauro de Freitas on October 16 (6 fatalities), armed clash in Jequie on January 3 (6 fatalities), armed clash in Jequie on July 26 (5 fatalities), armed clash in Santo Amaro on September 27 (5 fatalities)

9. Duhok, Iraq

• Violent conflicts forecast for April 2025: 138 events (+16 events from February 2025)
• Violent conflicts observed in February 2025: 122 events (19 fatalities)
• Violent conflicts observed in last 12 months: 3,904 events (98 fatalities)
• Deadliest conflicts of last 12 months: Armed clash in Dereluk on July 10 (5 fatalities), armed clash in Gire Cudi on August 8 (4 fatalities), armed clash in Haftanin on October 29 (4 fatalities), armed clash in Shilin on January 24 (4 fatalities), armed clash in Gire Amediye on March 19 (3 fatalities)

8. Beirut, Lebanon

• Violent conflicts forecast for April 2025: 21 events (+21 events from February 2025)
• Violent conflicts observed in February 2025: 00 events ( fatalities)
• Violent conflicts observed in last 12 months: 33 events (96 fatalities)
• Deadliest conflicts of last 12 months: Air/drone strike in Beirut – Mazraa on November 23 (29 fatalities), air/drone strike in Beirut on October 10 (22 fatalities), air/drone strike in Beirut – Zokak El Blat on October 3 (9 fatalities), air/drone strike in Beirut – Bachoura on October 3 (9 fatalities), air/drone strike in Beirut – Mazraa on November 26 (7 fatalities)

7. Deir ez Zor, Syria

• Violent conflicts forecast for April 2025: 84 events (+23 events from February 2025)
• Violent conflicts observed in February 2025: 61 events (30 fatalities)
• Violent conflicts observed in last 12 months: 1,878 events (1,073 fatalities)
• Deadliest conflicts of last 12 months: Remote explosive/landmine/IED in Al Sabkhah on March 16 (19 fatalities), air/drone strike in Al-Heri on September 29 (14 fatalities), armed clash in Ash Shula on August 20 (13 fatalities), armed clash in Jalaa on December 5 (13 fatalities), armed clash in Dahleh on August 9 (12 fatalities)

6. Al Jazirah, Sudan

• Violent conflicts forecast for April 2025: 49 events (+24 events from February 2025)
• Violent conflicts observed in February 2025: 25 events (45 fatalities)
• Violent conflicts observed in last 12 months: 939 events (3,613 fatalities)
• Deadliest conflicts of last 12 months: Armed clash in Tamboul on October 22 (520 fatalities), non-state actor overtakes territory in Um Algura on December 7 (280 fatalities), armed clash in Tamboul on October 20 (205 fatalities), armed clash in Tamboul on October 23 (150 fatalities), non-state actor overtakes territory in Wad Al Nura on June 5 (100 fatalities)

5. Al Hasakeh, Syria

• Violent conflicts forecast for April 2025: 86 events (+25 events from February 2025)
• Violent conflicts observed in February 2025: 61 events (18 fatalities)
• Violent conflicts observed in last 12 months: 855 events (379 fatalities)
• Deadliest conflicts of last 12 months: Armed clash in Hole on April 5 (10 fatalities), remote explosive/landmine/IED in Hole on April 11 (10 fatalities), remote explosive/landmine/IED in Tal Tamer on April 18 (10 fatalities), armed clash in Al Ushaytah on May 2 (10 fatalities), armed clash in Abu Rasin on October 24 (10 fatalities)

4. Nord-Kivu, Democratic Republic of Congo

• Violent conflicts forecast for April 2025: 68 events (+29 events from February 2025)
• Violent conflicts observed in February 2025: 39 events (189 fatalities)
• Violent conflicts observed in last 12 months: 1,178 events (3,029 fatalities)
• Deadliest conflicts of last 12 months: Attack in Manzia on February 11 (70 fatalities), shelling/artillery/missile attack in Sake on May 28 (65 fatalities), non-state actor overtakes territory in Goma – Majengo on January 27 (59 fatalities), armed clash in Goma – Bujovu on January 28 (59 fatalities), armed clash in Goma – Mugunga on January 28 (59 fatalities)

3. Al Nabatieh, Lebanon

• Violent conflicts forecast for April 2025: 87 events (+31 events from February 2025)
• Violent conflicts observed in February 2025: 56 events (6 fatalities)
• Violent conflicts observed in last 12 months: 6,733 events (1,010 fatalities)
• Deadliest conflicts of last 12 months: Air/drone strike in Nabatiye on October 4 (19 fatalities), air/drone strike in Bent Jbeil on October 3 (16 fatalities), air/drone strike in Nabatiye on October 16 (16 fatalities), air/drone strike in Toul on September 23 (13 fatalities), air/drone strike in Nabatiye on October 22 (13 fatalities)

2. Kherson, Ukraine

• Violent conflicts forecast for April 2025: 738 events (+47 events from February 2025)
• Violent conflicts observed in February 2025: 691 events (2,496 fatalities)
• Violent conflicts observed in last 12 months: 6,384 events (25,892 fatalities)
• Deadliest conflicts of last 12 months: Armed clash in Kherson on November 11 (230 fatalities), armed clash in Kherson on March 18 (228 fatalities), armed clash in Kherson on November 24 (180 fatalities), armed clash in Kherson on February 18 (175 fatalities), armed clash in Kherson on March 19 (169 fatalities)

1. Gaza Strip, Palestine

• Violent conflicts forecast for April 2025: 298 events (+167 events from February 2025)
• Violent conflicts observed in February 2025: 131 events (128 fatalities)
• Violent conflicts observed in last 12 months: 10,300 events (22,506 fatalities)
• Deadliest conflicts of last 12 months: Air/drone strike in Gaza – Ad Darraj on August 10 (100 fatalities), air/drone strike in Rafah Camp on August 12 (100 fatalities), armed clash in Tal as Sultan on September 14 (100 fatalities), air/drone strike in Jabalya Camp on April 9 (98 fatalities), air/drone strike in Beit Lahiya – Al Mashroo on October 29 (94 fatalities)

The post Dangerous Conflicts Will Escalate In These Regions Next Month appeared first on 24/7 Wall St..