Waste Management Stock (NYSE: WM) Price Prediction and Forecast 2025-2030 (April 2025)

Shares of Waste Management (NYSE:WM) remained flat over the past month, doing little to disrupt the stock’s year-to-date success so far in 2025. On the year, WM is up more than 12%, outperforming the S&P 500 by 24.93% over the same period. As the market continues to endure a significant downturn, the industrials sector staple has maintained its position as a defensive stock, with the company currently boasting 81.48% institutional ownership. 

Although Waste Management is a trash hauling behemoth today, it had humble beginnings. Harm Huizenga began picking up garbage in Chicago in 1893 for $1.25 per wagonload. Some 75 years later, his grandson Wayne Huizenga resurrected the family business and founded Waste Management, and quickly undertook a growth-by-acquisition strategy, buying up hundreds of small trash collection services all across the country.

Those days are long gone. US Waste Services, which had been a publicly traded company since 1987, acquired Waste Management in 1998 and assumed the Waste Management name. The stock has generated total returns of nearly 10,500% over nearly four decades compared to a 3,500% return by the S&P 500. The trash hauler began paying a dividend when the two companies merged, and it has consistently increased the payout every year since 2004. Since then, the dividend has grown from $0.75 per share to $3.00 per share and it has raised the payout by a compound growth rate of 7% annually for the past 10 years.

24/7 Wall Street aims to provide readers with our assumptions about the stock’s prospects going forward, what growth we see in WM stock for the next several years, and what our best estimates are for WM’s stock price each year through 2030.

Key points in this article:

• Waste Management has a large competitive moat, new market expansion opportunities and growing its renewable energy business.
• The ability to enter a new market and roll up the industry under its umbrella will allow for revenue and profit growth.
• Growth-by-acquisition does come with risks as integrating companies, particularly those that have had operational issues, and can take longer to achieve the expected synergies.
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Waste Management’s recent stock success

There are few things as certain in life as death and taxes, but one of the essentials for quality of life is trash collection. Because it is so vital to our health and well-being, Waste Management is a stalwart stock in all kinds of markets. Even throughout the pandemic, WM stock held up better than most and over the past five years shares have outpaced the market, doubling in value.

_{*Revenue and Net Income in $billions.}

Key drivers for WM’s stock performance

1. Wide and Deep Competitive Moat: While trash hauling services are relatively easily replicated, Waste Management’s dominance in landfill ownership is difficult if not impossible to match. Few landfills if any are being approved and siting them is hard because of the regulatory hurdles that must be scaled. The company holds roughly 30% of the U.S. landfill waste market share — the most of any individual company.  

2. Expansion Opportunities: With its vertical integration and commanding leadership position in waste disposal and landfills giving it significant cost efficiencies, Waste Management’s recent acquisition of Stericycle allows it to expand into medical waste disposal. Stericycle operates in over 20 countries and handles more than 1 million tons of medical waste annually. There are numerous smaller operators in the space giving WM a chance to roll up the industry.

3. Renewable Energy and Recycling: Although a trash hauling business doesn’t seem to translate easily into renewable energy, landfills produce significant amounts of methane gas which Waste Management seeks to capture, store, and transport. The company has earmarked $3 billion for renewable energy and recycling. WM happens to also be a major developer, operator, and owner of landfill gas-to-energy facilities for producing renewable electricity and renewable natural gas in the U.S. and Canada . It expects the segment to deliver EBITDA of $510 million in renewable energy and $290 million worth in recycling. 

Stock price prediction for 2025

Wall Street analysts’ consensus one-year price target for Waste Management is $246, or 9.18% higher than today’s stock price. The consensus rating from those 19 analysts is a ‘Moderate Buy,’ with 12 assigning WM a ‘Buy’ rating, seven assigning it a ‘Hold’ rating and none assigning it a ‘Sell’ rating. 

However, 24/7 Wall Street’s one-year forecast is a bit more conservative, projecting WM to be $238.09 per share, representing 5.67% upside potential, based on its significant competitive advantages and expansion into new markets that should continue to insulate it from any further broad market sell-offs. 

Waste Management (WM) forecast through 2030

We’ll value Waste Management’s stock price for the coming years, beginning with management’s expected revenue of $21.6 billion for 2024 and net income of $2.6 billion. Then we’ll give our best estimate of the market value of the company by assigning a price-to-earnings multiple.

_{*Revenue and Net Income in $billions}

Waste Management (WM) stock price prediction 2025–2030

By 2030, Waste Management’s dominance across several waste disposal markets, as well as its preeminent position with landfills, will have revenue growing 12% annually and margin growth improving to 17%. We estimate, however, the market will return WM to its more historical earnings multiple of 29 by the end of 2030, giving us a target price of $476.47 per share, or 111.48% upside potential from the current share price.

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