Waste Management (NYSE: WM) Stock Price Prediction and Forecast 2025-2030 (May 2025)

Shares of Waste Management Inc. (NYSE: WM) are trading near their all-time high but are also marginally higher as a month ago. Year to date, the stock is up about 15%, outperforming the S&P 500, which is over 3% lower in the same period. As the market continues to endure a significant downturn, the industrials sector staple has maintained its position as a defensive stock, with the company currently boasting 85.0% institutional ownership.

Although Waste Management is a trash-hauling behemoth today, it had humble beginnings. Harm Huizenga began picking up garbage in Chicago in 1893 for $1.25 per wagonload. Some 75 years later, his grandson Wayne Huizenga resurrected the family business and founded Waste Management, and quickly undertook a growth-by-acquisition strategy, buying up hundreds of small trash collection services all across the country.

Those days are long gone. U.S. Waste Services, which had been a publicly traded company since 1987, acquired Waste Management in 1998 and assumed the Waste Management name. The stock has generated total returns of nearly 1,470% over three decades, compared to a 966% return by the S&P 500. The trash hauler began paying a dividend when the two companies merged, and it has consistently increased the payout every year since 2004. Since then, the dividend has grown from $0.75 per share to $3.30 per share and it has raised the payout by a compound growth rate of 7.2% annually for the past 10 years.

24/7 Wall St. aims to provide readers with our assumptions about the stock’s prospects going forward, what growth we see in the stock for the next several years, and what our best estimates are for its share price each year through 2030.

Waste Management’s Recent Success

There are few things as certain in life as death and taxes, but one of the essentials for quality of life is trash collection. Because it is so vital to our health and well-being, Waste Management is a stalwart stock in all kinds of markets. Even throughout the pandemic, the stock held up better than most. Over the past five years, shares have outpaced the market, doubling in value.

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Key Drivers for Waste Management

1. Wide and Deep Competitive Moat: While trash-hauling services are relatively easily replicated, Waste Management’s dominance in landfill ownership is difficult if not impossible to match. Few landfills if any are being approved and siting them is hard because of the regulatory hurdles that must be scaled. The company holds roughly 30% of the U.S. landfill waste market share — the most of any individual company.

2. Expansion Opportunities: With its vertical integration and commanding leadership position in waste disposal and landfills giving it significant cost efficiencies, Waste Management’s recent acquisition of Stericycle allows it to expand into medical waste disposal. Stericycle operates in over 20 countries and handles more than 1 million tons of medical waste annually. There are numerous smaller operators in the space giving WM a chance to roll up the industry.

3. Renewable Energy and Recycling: Although a trash hauling business doesn’t seem to translate easily into renewable energy, landfills produce significant amounts of methane gas which Waste Management seeks to capture, store, and transport. The company has earmarked $3 billion for renewable energy and recycling. WM happens to also be a major developer, operator, and owner of landfill gas-to-energy facilities for producing renewable electricity and renewable natural gas in the U.S. and Canada. It expects the segment to deliver EBITDA of $510 million in renewable energy and $290 million worth in recycling.

Stock Price Prediction 2025 to 2030

Wall Street analysts’ consensus one-year price target for Waste Management is $244.67, or 5.2% higher than today’s stock price. Of 23 analysts who follow the stock, 12 of them recommend buying shares, three with Strong Buy ratings.

However, 24/7 Wall St.’s one-year forecast is a bit more conservative, projecting the stock will trade for $238.09 per share. That represents 2.4% upside potential, and it is based on its significant competitive advantages and expansion into new markets that should continue to insulate it from any further broad market sell-offs.

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By 2030, Waste Management’s dominance across several waste disposal markets, as well as its preeminent position with landfills, will have revenue growing 12% annually and margin growth improving to 17%. We estimate, however, the market will return it to its more historical earnings multiple of 29 by the end of 2030, giving us a target price of $476.47 per share, or 104.9% upside potential from the current share price. Here’s a look at how it gets there:

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