Live Earnings Updates: 3 Catalysts That Can Send NVIDIA (NVDA) Shares Soaring Tonight

It’s time once again for the entire market’s fate to be decided by the earnings from one company! 

NVIDIA (Nasdaq: NVDA) earnings are expected after the bell today, at about 4:20 p.m. ET. We’re going to be updating a live blog with reactions from the earnings after they hit. So, stay on this page once earnings are released as I’ll be digging deep into a report that could affect the path of not only technology but the entire market tomorrow (and the weeks to come). 

Let’s preview tonight’s earnings and also detail some important areas we’ll be watching for. 

NVIDIA Q4 Wall Street Expectations 

Here is Wall Street’s estimates of what NVIDIA is expected to report tonight. 

• Revenues: $38.2 billion (growth of 72% from last year) 
• EPS: $.84 (Up 62%) 
• Data Center Sales: $34.1 billion (Up 85%) 
• Gross Margin (Adjusted): 73.4%

Q1 Guidance 

• Revenues: $42.3 billion (Up 63%) 
• EPS: $.92 (Up 51%) 
• Gross Margin (Adjusted): 72% 

Please note that Wall Street estimates vary slightly, so some might differ depending on data providers.

Wall Street will likely be most focused on the first-quarter guide and margin commentary, along with commentary and guidance for Fiscal 2026 – which ends in January of next year. 

Key Areas to Watch For in Tonight’s Earnings

Here are the key areas we’ll be watching for today. 

Blackwell Commentary 

NVIDIA’s forward guidance will live and die by Blackwell sales. The company’s share price has bounced between $116 per share and $150 per share in the past quarter largely based on supply chain reports that NVIDIA is either failing to scale or may see orders cut in the back half of the year. NVIDIA may also provide more commentary on the Blackwell 300 series that’s expected to launch in the back half of the year. 

The DeepSeek Question 

NVIDIA hasn’t reported earnings since the market plummeted following the announcement of DeepSeek’s R1 model. Wall Street will surely ask about demand adjustments following DeepSeek, and expect a long and detailed answer from Jensen Huang on the topic. Supply chain rumors have pointed to significant orders of export-compliant GPUs from China in the wake of DeepSeek, so we’d expect Huang to point to demand increasing after the model’s release. 

Margins and Guidance 

NVIDIA will be concluding its fourth quarter, which means the company will immediately provide first-quarter guidance in its CFO commentary. Wall Street will surely be watching whether margins tip below expectations as the company continues entering production of Blackwell. NVIDIA has guided that margins will dip at the beginning of Blackwell production before rising at the platform finishes ramping. 

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