Is President Trump's Trade War Now Priced Into the S&P 500 Index? History Offers a Clue.

President Donald Trump has made good on his promises from the campaign trail and issued sweeping tariffs that have now escalated into a full-blown trade war. The Trump administration issued 25% tariffs on Mexico and Canada, and tariffs on China have increased from 10% to 20%.All three countries have vowed to respond in kind, and markets are reeling as a result. The S&P 500 (SNPINDEX: ^GSPC) is down 3.9% year to date, as of this writing, and it has given back the gains it enjoyed since Trump was elected in November.Has the stock market priced in Trump's trade war? History offers a possible answer.Continue reading

Mar 11, 2025 - 12:08
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Is President Trump's Trade War Now Priced Into the S&P 500 Index? History Offers a Clue.

President Donald Trump has made good on his promises from the campaign trail and issued sweeping tariffs that have now escalated into a full-blown trade war. The Trump administration issued 25% tariffs on Mexico and Canada, and tariffs on China have increased from 10% to 20%.

All three countries have vowed to respond in kind, and markets are reeling as a result. The S&P 500 (SNPINDEX: ^GSPC) is down 3.9% year to date, as of this writing, and it has given back the gains it enjoyed since Trump was elected in November.

Has the stock market priced in Trump's trade war? History offers a possible answer.

Continue reading