These Countries Are Running Out Of People

24/7 Wall St. Insights

• Faced with aging populations, declining fertility rates, and outbound migration, several countries are projected to lose more than half of their populations by century’s end.
• 30 countries experienced population decline from 2000 to 2025.
• 59 countries are forecast to experience population decline from 2025 to 2050.
• The fastest-shrinking parts of the world include countries in Eastern Europe and Southeast Asia, as well as small Pacific island nations.
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While most of the world is worried about explosive growth and overpopulation, a number of fast-shrinking countries are fretting about population decline. Aging populations, low fertility rates, and outbound migration flows are contributing to population decline in countries throughout the developed and developing world, with some nations forecast to lose more than half of their populations by century’s end.

Worldwide, 30 countries experienced population decline from 2000 to 2025. Some 59 countries are forecast to experience population decline from 2025 to 2050, while 90 countries are projected to shrink from 2025 to 2100. Many of the fastest-shrinking countries are in Eastern Europe, where outbound migration is rising and birth rates are falling. Many small island nations, such as Cook Islands, Saint Pierre and Miquelon, and Micronesia, are also losing population at an unsustainable pace. Some Asian nations that experienced rapid population growth in the late 20th century, such as Japan and South Korea, are shrinking too. A closer look at the data reveals the countries running out of people.

To determine the countries running out of people, 24/7 Wall St. reviewed data on population projections from the U.S. Census Bureau’s International Database. Countries were ranked based on projected population change from 2025 to 2050. Only countries with fertility rates below the 2.1-births-per-female average replacement for developed nations were included.

25. China

• Population projection, 2025-2050: -8.7% (-4.3 million people)
• Current population, 2025: 1,407,181,209
• Population forecast, 2050: 1,284,485,617
• Fertility rate, 2025: 1.2 births per female

24. Greece

• Population projection, 2025-2050: -8.8% (-4.3 million people)
• Current population, 2025: 10,424,536
• Population forecast, 2050: 9,504,172
• Fertility rate, 2025: 1.4 births per female

23. Hungary

• Population projection, 2025-2050: -9.1% (-4.3 million people)
• Current population, 2025: 9,827,455
• Population forecast, 2050: 8,932,065
• Fertility rate, 2025: 1.6 births per female

22. Belarus

• Population projection, 2025-2050: -10.7% (-4.3 million people)
• Current population, 2025: 9,460,972
• Population forecast, 2050: 8,448,423
• Fertility rate, 2025: 1.5 births per female

21. Russia

• Population projection, 2025-2050: -10.8% (-4.3 million people)
• Current population, 2025: 140,134,279
• Population forecast, 2050: 124,975,435
• Fertility rate, 2025: 1.5 births per female

20. Dominica

• Population projection, 2025-2050: -11.0% (-4.3 million people)
• Current population, 2025: 74,642
• Population forecast, 2050: 66,443
• Fertility rate, 2025: 2.0 births per female

19. South Korea

• Population projection, 2025-2050: -11.3% (-4.3 million people)
• Current population, 2025: 51,486,343
• Population forecast, 2050: 45,651,732
• Fertility rate, 2025: 0.7 births per female

18. Estonia

• Population projection, 2025-2050: -11.7% (-4.3 million people)
• Current population, 2025: 1,340,478
• Population forecast, 2050: 1,183,708
• Fertility rate, 2025: 1.4 births per female

17. Japan

• Population projection, 2025-2050: -13.5% (-4.3 million people)
• Current population, 2025: 122,664,433
• Population forecast, 2050: 106,156,887
• Fertility rate, 2025: 1.4 births per female

16. Romania

• Population projection, 2025-2050: -13.5% (-4.3 million people)
• Current population, 2025: 17,985,252
• Population forecast, 2050: 15,560,475
• Fertility rate, 2025: 1.6 births per female

15. Serbia

• Population projection, 2025-2050: -13.9% (-4.3 million people)
• Current population, 2025: 6,612,318
• Population forecast, 2050: 5,692,788
• Fertility rate, 2025: 1.5 births per female

14. Poland

• Population projection, 2025-2050: -14.2% (-4.3 million people)
• Current population, 2025: 38,364,679
• Population forecast, 2050: 32,900,075
• Fertility rate, 2025: 1.3 births per female

13. Bulgaria

• Population projection, 2025-2050: -14.8% (-4.3 million people)
• Current population, 2025: 6,737,997
• Population forecast, 2050: 5,740,967
• Fertility rate, 2025: 1.5 births per female

12. Moldova

• Population projection, 2025-2050: -14.8% (-4.3 million people)
• Current population, 2025: 3,578,930
• Population forecast, 2050: 3,049,227
• Fertility rate, 2025: 1.3 births per female

11. Armenia

• Population projection, 2025-2050: -14.9% (-4.3 million people)
• Current population, 2025: 2,963,837
• Population forecast, 2050: 2,521,147
• Fertility rate, 2025: 1.7 births per female

10. Ukraine

• Population projection, 2025-2050: -15.3% (-4.3 million people)
• Current population, 2025: 36,529,111
• Population forecast, 2050: 30,945,857
• Fertility rate, 2025: 1.2 births per female

9. Croatia

• Population projection, 2025-2050: -16.0% (-4.3 million people)
• Current population, 2025: 4,071,208
• Population forecast, 2050: 3,419,647
• Fertility rate, 2025: 1.4 births per female

8. Montenegro

• Population projection, 2025-2050: -17.2% (-4.3 million people)
• Current population, 2025: 597,174
• Population forecast, 2050: 494,545
• Fertility rate, 2025: 1.8 births per female

7. Cuba

• Population projection, 2025-2050: -20.5% (-4.3 million people)
• Current population, 2025: 10,059,519
• Population forecast, 2050: 7,993,197
• Fertility rate, 2025: 1.5 births per female

6. Bosnia and Herzegovina

• Population projection, 2025-2050: -21.4% (-4.3 million people)
• Current population, 2025: 3,653,499
• Population forecast, 2050: 2,872,618
• Fertility rate, 2025: 1.1 births per female

5. Lithuania

• Population projection, 2025-2050: -23.8% (-4.3 million people)
• Current population, 2025: 2,815,687
• Population forecast, 2050: 2,146,198
• Fertility rate, 2025: 1.2 births per female

4. Albania

• Population projection, 2025-2050: -23.9% (-4.3 million people)
• Current population, 2025: 2,551,837
• Population forecast, 2050: 1,940,867
• Fertility rate, 2025: 1.1 births per female

3. Latvia

• Population projection, 2025-2050: -24.5% (-4.3 million people)
• Current population, 2025: 1,888,439
• Population forecast, 2050: 1,425,536
• Fertility rate, 2025: 1.3 births per female

2. Saint Pierre and Miquelon

• Population projection, 2025-2050: -27.3% (-4.3 million people)
• Current population, 2025: 5,070
• Population forecast, 2050: 3,685
• Fertility rate, 2025: 1.6 births per female

1. Cook Islands

• Population projection, 2025-2050: -29.0% (-4.3 million people)
• Current population, 2025: 7,592
• Population forecast, 2050: 5,392
• Fertility rate, 2025: 2.0 births per female

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