Stock Market Live June 25: S&P 500 (VOO) Tracks Oil Prices Higher as Israel-Iran Ceasefire Holds

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The plunge in oil prices earlier this week gave way to a slight rebound in prices Wednesday. Per-barrel prices of both WTI crude oil and Brent crude, the international benchmark, rose 0.3% in pre-market trading. The Vanguard S&P 500 ETF (NYSEMKT: VOO) is following suit, rising 0.3% in premarket trading.

A truce between Israel and Iran, curiously declared by America’s President Trump Monday night, is buoying investor confidence that there will not be an oil supply crisis after the U.S. bombed Iranian nuclear facilities Sunday. This confidence led to a dramatic selloff in oil prices this week, which have now fallen more than 12% over the past two days.

Even more curious is a post on Truth Social from President Trump yesterday, which declared: “China can now continue to purchase Oil from Iran. Hopefully, they will be purchasing plenty from the US, also.”

The apparent implication: Not only is the missile war between Israel and Iran cooling off, but the trade war between the U.S. and China may be cooling as well.

Earnings

In earnings news, S&P 500 component company FedEx (NYSE: FDX) reported a beat for its fiscal Q4 2025 last night, with both profits and revenue ahead of expectations. Unfortunately, FedEx then warned that fiscal Q1 2026 could see revenue flat year over year. FedEx said full-year fiscal 2026 profits will range from $2.90 to $3.50 per share.

Another S&P 500 component, General Mills (NYSE: GIS), had a similar report this morning. The cereal company said its Q4 2025 profit was $0.73 per share, three cents better than expected. However, organic sales growth for fiscal 2026 looks flat, and “adjusted” diluted EPS may fall 10% to 15% in constant currency terms.

Analyst calls

Goldman Sachs upgraded S&P 500 component Duke Energy (Nasdaq: DUK) stock to buy this morning to buy this morning with a $132 price target. Goldman sees a positive “outlook from a load growth, generation capex, regulatory and balance sheet” perspective, and calls Duke’s valuation “compelling … at a discount to other premium utilities” stocks.

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