NBA Lottery Watch: The curious case of Ace Bailey

Conference play is in full swing. The stakes are higher, teammates have gelled, scouting reports are more fleshed out and NBA teams have started to lock in on potential targets for June’s draft.

Since we last checked in, some teams have stayed the course, with No. 2 Duke on a 13-game win streak and rolling with a 9-0 record in conference play. No. 1 Auburn in the crowded SEC is riding an 11-game win streak and planting their flag after a two-point win over No. 6 Tennessee.

Much like the top teams in college hoops, the top prospects have remained steady —Cooper Flagg and Dylan Harper continue to dominate and cement their spots atop the draft.

So instead of spending too much time analyzing those top two, we’ll instead focus on some guys in the mid-lottery as rankings continue to shift through the tougher part of the college basketball schedule. And if you’re a Raptors fan concerned with the team’s recent run of success, here are some guys that could make you more optimistic if the lottery balls don’t fall in their favour.

1. Cooper Flagg, F, Duke — Six-foot-nine, 205 pounds, 18 years old 

Flagg’s offensive ceiling continues to rise. Following a quiet 13-point, six-assist performance against Miami, the consensus first-overall pick had 28 against Boston College and 24 against Wake Forest, showing an increased ability to get to the line and use his physical play to open up more opportunities for himself and the rest of the Blue Devils.

2. Dylan Harper, G, Rutgers — Six-foot-six, 220 pounds, 18 years old

Harper has had an understated couple of weeks as he dealt with an ankle injury and came off the bench for Rutgers’ loss to No. 8 Michigan State. However, the last time we saw him fully healthy — an 85-82 win over Nebraska — Harper finished with an all-around impressive outing, tallying 21 points, five rebounds and four assists.

3. V.J. Edgecombe, G, Baylor — Six-foot-five, 180 pounds, 19 years old

After a slow start to the season with Edgecombe struggling to find a rhythm, the 19-year-old hyper-athlete has taken off for the Bears, erupting for a 30-point performance against Kansas State and 21 against Utah.

Over his last six games, Edgecombe is shooting 45.5 per cent from three-point range on 5.5 attempts per game, all while being the most explosive athlete on the floor — attacking the rim with force, speed and hang-time and working as the best point-of-attack defender in college hoops.

What’s been even more impressive with Edgecombe of late is his willingness to combine his explosive drives with some playmaking, finding guys in the dunker spot, his pick-and-roll partner or someone on the edge for a kickout. He seems to almost stop time once he’s in mid-air to find the open man.

If he continues to develop his vision and consistency shooting the three-ball Edgecombe’s stock could continue to rise come June.

4. Kasparas Jakucionis, G, Illinois — Six-foot-six, 205 pounds, 18 years old

Following a rough three-point outing against Michigan State that saw him foul out after playing only nine minutes, Jakucionis bounced back with a steady 21-point, seven-rebound, seven-assist performance against Maryland.

The guard has still struggled with ball security of late, finishing with seven turnovers in the game against Maryland and is averaging 3.0 per game in Big Ten play. On one hand, it’s to be expected when the ball is in his hands as much as it is — he’s an imaginative passer who reads the game well and is testing his limits as a creator — but it’s also apparent that some wrinkled edges to his game will have to be ironed out.

His accuracy from range has also dipped since conference play began as he’s shooting 28.5 per cent on threes in his last six games and is one for 11 in his last three.

5. Ace Bailey, F, Rutgers — Six-foot-10, 200 pounds, 18 years old

It’s getting harder and harder to scout Bailey properly. His shot-making ability is undeniable and he profiles as an excellent scoring wing at the next level. However, his inconsistency and shot diet leave a lot to be desired.

In the four games since we last checked in on him, Bailey is averaging 23 points and 9.3 rebounds while shooting 52.5 per cent from the field and 52.4 per cent from three-point range. But to get the full story you need to watch his tape, as he routinely takes (and at times makes) mid-range jumpers with two defenders in his face and turnaround baseline fades that would make Patrick Ewing throw a chair — the sort of shots that absolutely won’t fly with bigger and stronger defenders.

How can you say no to the talent, though? Getting the ball into the basket is the most important tool you can have in the NBA. But so far that’s all Bailey is showing. To warrant a top-three or top-five pick, a poor shot diet and a complete unwillingness to swing the rock (1.5 assists per game in his last four) have to be seen as detractors.

6. Derik Queen, C, Maryland — Six-foot-10, 246 pounds, 20 years old

Queen is the most intriguing big in this class as his physicality down low, soft touch from the mid-range and playmaking upside are forcing scouts to ponder his offensive ceiling.

Though he hasn’t yet been able to sink three-pointers — hitting at a brutal 9.5 per cent clip — his repeatable form from an array of different sets in the mid-range and his consistency from the charity stripe (76.3 per cent) project well. He displays a lot of the same balance that fan favourite DJ Burns of N.C. State showed off in the tournament last year, but does so with the sort of frame and athleticism that should translate better to the NBA.

He has some kinks to work on defensively and will need to show more effort on that end, but offensively, Queen is the modern centre that teams have shown a willingness to bet on since the emergence of offensively versatile bigs like Joel Embiid and Nikola Jokic.

7. Kon Knueppel, F, Duke — Six-foot-seven, 217 pounds, 19 years old

Knueppel might be one of the safest bets in this draft as a high-floor, low-ceiling player. Once you reach the mid-lottery, that’s what a lot of teams are looking for in the first place. The big-bodied guard won’t ever blow you out of your seat, but he has the sort of skillset that will allow him to fit onto whatever team drafts him.

Averaging 12.8 points, 3.6 rebounds and 2.7 assists this season while shooting 44.1 per cent from the field and 37.9 per cent from deep, Knueppel projects as a high-level roleplayer at the next level. He’s also shown a willingness to get to the rim off of smart cuts, attack closeouts or make the extra pass in Duke’s pro-style offence.

Though he’s not the most athletic player on the court, Knueppel puts in some serious effort on the defensive end and has found ways — in a high-level Duke defensive system — to disguise some of his deficiencies.

His performance in an 89-54 win over Miami stands out, as he finished with 25 points on six of eight from deep. If safety is a priority, Knueppel deserves a shout.

Prospect to watch: Thomas Sorber, F/C, Georgetown — Six-foot-10, 255 pounds, 19 years old

Not necessarily our eighth-ranked prospect, just one we’ve had our eye on!

Sorber lit up NCAA social media on Saturday night after a 25-point, 15-rebound, two-steal and three-block performance against Providence.

The big-bodied forward has been a two-way force for Georgetown this season, averaging 14.8 points on 52.0 per cent from the field while pacing the Big East in rebounding (9.1) and block percentage (8.5 per cent). He’s an athletic marvel, as his strong build only adds to his seven-foot-six wingspan.

There’s also some offensive upside with Sorber. Though he’s only shooting 20 per cent from deep, he’s hitting 76.7 per cent of his free throws and has some decent touch from the mid-range. Additionally, he has solid offensive instincts and can make plays from the short roll.

If he continues to expand his offensive game with his obvious defensive upside, Sorber could hear his name called in the lottery come draft night, becoming one of this class’s biggest risers.

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