Jets should ink impressive Samberg to long-term deal

WINNIPEG — Forget about what Kyle Connor’s next extension could look like, if the Jets should re-sign Neal Pionk, or if there’s any way they can make Nikolaj Ehlers stay.

It’s time to think about about Dylan Samberg’s next contract.

Lost in the weeds of Sunday’s 5-2 win over the Calgary Flames — a game highlighted by Gabriel Vilardi’s four-point night, a filthy breakaway goal by Connor and the Jets’ red-hot power play – was yet another rock solid showing from Samberg.

In other words, Exhibit Z as to why he’s due for a hefty raise. 

The 26-year-old finished the night with one assist, a +2 rating, one takeaway and one hit while logging a team-high 22:35 minutes. When he was on the ice, the Jets outchanced Calgary 8-2 during five-on-five play. And throughout his 3:45 minutes of penalty-kill time (another team-high), Calgary didn’t generate a single scoring chance. 

“He’s the goalie’s best friend out there,” Eric Comrie said after stopping 20 of 22 shots.

Samberg’s rise from a raw, third-pairing defenceman to workhorse, top-four defender has been one of this season’s best stories. 

“He’s become such a well-rounded defenceman,” coach Scott Arniel said. “His skating ability … and it’s not just going forward. His ability to pivot and his ability to catch people with speed, he does such a great job with his transition. And he’s grown into the role.”

There’s nothing more that needs to be shown — it’s time for the Jets to lock him up. Long-term. 

Players like him don’t grow on trees. 

Defensively, aside from Connor Hellebuyck, you could argue that no player is as valuable as Samberg. The six-foot-four defender has morphed into an elite defender, all-the-while being deployed against opponents’ top lines. 

His underlying numbers are sparkling.

Samberg’s on-ice impact this season

Not only does he rank seventh in takeaways per 60 minutes (1.83) among defencemen, but according to data tracked by AllThreeZones.com, Samberg ranks seventh in zone denials per 60 (4.20). Oh, and he’s recorded the 20th-most penalty kill blocks per 60 minutes (10.48) among defencemen (minimum 50 minutes). 

What Samberg has done this year isn’t surprising to those that have seen him up close. 

This quote from Dylan DeMelo back in September was telling. 

“With the physical tools he has, I don’t see why he can’t be like a Jaccob Slavin or a Gustav Forsling,” DeMelo told Sportsnet before the 2024-25 season started. “I think he can be that type of big, rangy guy that moves well and can defend.”

At the time, DeMelo pointed out how the next step for Samberg was to refine his offensive game. And while his three goals and nine points through 30 games is nothing to write home about, Samberg’s poise with the puck is night and day from last year.

I mean, look no further than his primary assist on Vilardi’s goal. That little no-look, well-placed pass? The Samberg we used to know would have never pulled it off. 

“That’s all part of the growth, too,” Arniel said. “If you ask him, too, he still thinks there’s lots of things that he can work on to improve his offence. At the end of the day, he makes those little plays coming out of our end. If you can do it in our end, under pressure [and] under a heavy forecheck, usually when you get a little bit more space in the offensive zone, you feel a little bit more confident.”

Samberg may be 26 but we’re talking about a player with just 186 career games played — his best hockey is still ahead of him. And that’s why the Jets shouldn’t think twice about offering him a seven- or eight-year deal. 

It’d be a similar “gamble,” that the club made on Josh Morrissey, whose $6.25 million cap hit makes for one of the NHL’s best value deals. If he signed a one-year deal, he’d become a UFA after the 2025-26 season. 

Samberg will be an RFA with arbitration rights at the end of the season. If he signed a one-year deal, he’d become a UFA after the 2025-26 season. Samberg may have switched agents recently but as Sportsnet’s Elliotte Friedman reported on the 32 Thoughts Podcast, it’s not because he’s unhappy with the Jets. While that’s surely a relief, it shouldn’t be a surprise — the Minnesotan has always proclaimed his love for Winnipeg. 

As we inch closer to the NHL salary cap rising significantly in the not-so-distant future, it’s imperative for a small-market team like the Jets to cash in on value deals during this Cup window. 

What’re the odds Winnipeg has buyer’s remorse with an eight-year deal with an AAV somewhere around $5 million? Slim.

Even if the salary cap stayed flat at $88 million (which it isn’t) that’s not a bad bet at all. But keep in mind that we’re not far off from the salary cap reaching $100 million, and by then a $5-million AAV would amount to five per cent of the salary cap — which equates to $4.4 million in today’s climate. 

This is a player that the organization has long believed in. A player that, before he became an NHLer, was as close to an ‘untouchable’ as you can get whenever teams called.

The Jets bet on Samberg this summer when they let Brenden Dillon walk, with the intention of the former filling the latter’s void. And it’s paid off.

But this summer, it’s time for them to gamble once more. On a long-term deal.

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