Is My Retirement Age Realistic? Seeking Feedback on My Early Retirement Dreams

Setting retirement goals can inspire you to earn more money and tighten your expenses, but you don’t want to set unrealistic goals either. That’s why a 31-year-old man posted his numbers in the FIRE Reddit community. 

He is married with two kids, and the family lives on a $240,000+ household income. The family has $80,000 in annual expenses and lives comfortably. The couple views $2 million as a reasonable FIRE number but still plans to have $2.4 million, so they have more than necessary. The husband wants to retire at 45 and already has a $455,000 net worth.

Redditors took over the comments and gave some advice that can help the original poster map out their retirement strategy.

Expenses Will Go Up

One of the top comments came from a Redditor who asked how the husband will deal with college and healthcare. Getting off healthcare before the children turn 26 will result in a more expensive bill.  The Redditor will reassess healthcare options when he is approaching retirement, but he is putting money away in his children’s 529 savings plans. These plans allow the Redditor to reduce their tax bill while saving up for his education expenses.

It’s also worth noting that the Redditor’s projections are based on the value of today’s dollar. Inflation will gradually reduce the purchasing power of each dollar over time, so the Redditor may need more nominal dollars to replicate the purchasing power of today’s dollars.

A Younger Retirement Age Warrants A More Conservative Approach

The last thing you want to do is retire early and then run out of money. The Redditor still has plenty of good working years left at 45. While he can step away if he has enough money, he may want to follow the more conservative 3% withdrawal rule instead of using the 4% withdrawal rule.

The kids are one year old, so they will be 15 by the time the husband is 45 years old. He would have gotten his kids through most of their expenses at that point. However, college would be approaching when the kids are 15 years old.

The Redditor may benefit more from using the 3% withdrawal rule. This change will require a higher net worth to retire comfortably. However, working a few extra years means the 31-year-old can potentially retire while his kids are in the middle of college. Soon, they will graduate and be able to land jobs and cover their own expenses. Waiting a little longer instead of rushing to retire at 45 offers more flexibility and can make the 3% withdrawal rule more feasible.

What If The Market Goes Down?

That’s a big if, but the caution around this risk is growing. The market reaction to Trump’s tariffs highlights how vulnerable nest eggs are. Perhaps the Redditor can gradually shift from stocks to bonds when they retire, but market corrections still present a risk. 

Furthermore, it will take 14 years for the Redditor to become a 45-year-old. The long-term trend of low fertility rates can lead to global depopulation. China’s economy has fueled a lot of stock gains over the years, but the country’s population dropped for the third consecutive year.

Public discourse on how low fertility rates and depopulation will impact the stock market is currently sparse. However, these concerns can heat up in the next 15-20 years. The best scenarios assume that the stock market continues to rally, but these risks may warrant a 3% withdrawal rate and a more cautious stance.  

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