If Any State Was Going to Secede, It’d Be This One

If you speak to local residents in La Jolla, a seaside neighborhood in San Diego, California, you’ll hear a common refrain: the roads are absolutely terrible. Cracked pavement, buckled roadways, and pothole issues abound — all of which are increasingly frustrating to the people who live there. San Diego legislators could point more assistance in […] The post If Any State Was Going to Secede, It’d Be This One appeared first on 24/7 Wall St..

Apr 1, 2025 - 13:12

If Any State Was Going to Secede, It’d Be This One

If you speak to local residents in La Jolla, a seaside neighborhood in San Diego, California, you’ll hear a common refrain: the roads are absolutely terrible. Cracked pavement, buckled roadways, and pothole issues abound — all of which are increasingly frustrating to the people who live there. San Diego legislators could point more assistance in the direction of La Jolla, but haven’t. This, along with concerns about pensions and public safety, have led several La Jolla lifers to begin the process of seceding from greater San Diego. However, La Jolla residents need 6,750 valid signatures to secede from San Diego and begin the process of incorporating as its own city — and with the deadline looming, they’re still around 1,000 signatures short. Could the fact that San Diego is allegedly threatening to withhold police and sewer services be what’s scaring people off? (What would happen if California became its own country?)

What’s happening in La Jolla is just a small example of secession, or the formal withdrawal of a group (in this case, La Jolla) from a larger entity (in this case, San Diego). In more significant cases, secession can see an entire state or nation leave its governing body; the secession of eleven states into the Confederate States of America is actually what kickstarted the Civil War. Today, we often hear states put secession forward as a solution to political conflict, such as Texas or California. But what states are actually most likely to secede? Using a variety of data, including a 2024 survey from YouGov, 24/7 Wall St. explored which states seemed most interested in secession. Because there were minimal respondents for North Dakota, South Dakota, Vermont, and Wyoming, these states were excluded from our analysis. Additional data on state population was taken from the Census Bureau and IBISWorld industry reports; comparisons come from Database Earth. We also used several sources, including the Bureau of Economic Analysis and Federal Reserve Bank of St. Louis, for state GDP. Active-duty military personnel counts were taken from the Military State Policy Source. States are listed from least likely to most likely to secede. In cases of ties, the state with the higher population, GDP, and military personnel were listed first.

This previously published article was updated on March 31, 2025 to reflect new secession initiatives in cities across the United States, as well as to update population, GDP, and military data from 2023 to 2024.

Why Do We Need to Discuss Secession Now?

Parchment replica of page one of the Emancipation Proclamation

Many people think of secession as a thing of the past. But the current situation in Illinois and Indiana demonstrate that secession exists as part of modern American politics. House Bill 1008 proposes the formation of an Indiana-Illinois Boundary Adjustment Commission that would integrate 33 Illinois counties that have already voted to secede into Indiana. The counties that have voted to secede have cited frustratingly high taxes, as well as cultural differences between Illinois’ Chicagoland area and more rural parts of the state. However, despite Indiana’s offer to adopt these Illinois counties, many of the residents of these counties still remain more interested in starting a 51st state, a mission pushed forward by New Illinois. (Could these U.S. state borders be changed in our lifetime?)

By the numbers, Illinois is not at the top of our list — or even in the top 10. Yet if this state can begin pushing secession initiatives forward, other states could soon feel the need to catch up and do so as well, especially if the political polarization across the United States continues to worsen. Looking at resident interest in secession gives you an idea of what states could pursue secession in the future, as well as how effective their democracy and economy would be.

Can you guess which U.S. state is most likely to secede?:

46. Connecticut

Waterbury. Connecticut. USA

Residents supporting secession: 9%
State Population: 3.675 million, comparable to Eritrea
State GDP: $296.6 billion, comparable to Finland
Active-Duty Military: 7,060, comparable to Estonia
Other Factors: Seaport on the Atlantic Ocean; next door to New York City with its economic opportunities.

45. Minnesota

Sunflowers blooming in a northern Minnesota field at sunset.

Residents supporting secession: 13%
State Population: 5.793 million, comparable to Lebanon
State GDP: $500.85 billion, comparable to Singapore
Active-Duty Military: 1,816, comparable to Suriname
Other Factors: Seaport on the Atlantic Ocean; strong cultural identity.

44. Rhode Island

Rhode+Island | Providence, Rhode Island

Residents supporting secession: 14%
State Population: 1.112 million, comparable to Djibouti
State GDP: $63.3 billion, comparable to Democratic Republic of Congo
Active-Duty Military: 3,250, comparable to Guyana
Other Factors: Smallest by land area but has excellent Atlantic access for international trade.

43. Massachusetts

Residents supporting secession: 14%
State Population: 7.136 million, comparable to Kyrgyzstan
State GDP: $638.3 billion, comparable to Belgium
Active-Duty Military: 4,688, comparable to Gabon
Other Factors: Seaport on the Atlantic Ocean; strong cultural identity.

42. Ohio

Residents supporting secession: 14%
State Population: 11.18 million, comparable to the United Arab Emirates
State GDP: $873 billion, comparable to Switzerland
Active-Duty Military: 11,114, comparable to Burkina Faso
Other Factors: Access to the Great Lakes and the Ohio River; top 10 in manufacturing.

41. New Hampshire

Vermont state on the map

Residents supporting secession: 15%
State Population: 1.409 million, comparable to Timor-Leste
State GDP: $105.025 billion, comparable to Guatemala
Active-Duty Military: 1,236, comparable to Cape Verde
Other Factors: International border with Canada; seaport on the Atlantic

40. Wisconsin

Residents supporting secession: 15%
State Population: 5.961 million, comparable to Denmark
State GDP: $396.2 billion, comparable to Egypt
Active-Duty Military: 3,271, comparable to Guyana
Other Factors: Landlocked; access to Great Lakes; top 10 in agriculture and manufacturing.

39. Maryland

Residents supporting secession: 15%
State Population: 6.236 million, comparable to El Salvador
State GDP: $546.3 billion, comparable to Ireland
Active-Duty Military: 27,863, comparable to Hungary
Other Factors: Access to the Chesapeake Bay and Atlantic Ocean; surrounds the national capital on three sides.

38. Michigan

Michigan state on the USA map

Residents supporting secession: 15%
State Population: 10.14 million, comparable to Greece
State GDP: $565.5 billion, comparable to Ireland
Active-Duty Military: 4,688, comparable to Gabon
Other Factors: Landlocked, access to the Great Lakes; international border with Canada; top 10 in mining and manufacturing.

37. Iowa

Map view of Iowa on a geographical globe. (vignette)

Residents supporting secession: 16%
State Population: 3.241 million, comparable to Puerto Rico
State GDP: $206.1 billion, comparable to Hungary
Active-Duty Military: 1,561, comparable to Belize
Other Factors: Landlocked but has access to the Missouri and Mississippi rivers; top 10 in agriculture.

36. Utah

Eureka+city+Utah | Eureka, Utah

Residents supporting secession: 16%
State Population: 3.504 million, comparable to Eritrea
State GDP: $224.6 billion, comparable to Qatar
Active-Duty Military: 5,608, comparable to Niger
Other Factors: Landlocked; mountainous; top 10 in mining; strong cultural identity.

35. Missouri

Residents supporting secession: 16%
State Population: 6.245 million, comparable to Congo
State GDP: $455 billion, comparable to Bangladesh
Active-Duty Military: 12,826, comparable to Mali
Other Factors: Landlocked; access to Mississippi River; nuclear weapons; top 10 mineral producer.

34. New Jersey

Newark, New Jersey | Newark, New Jersey

Residents supporting secession: 16%
State Population: 9.501 million, comparable to Togo
State GDP: $678.96 billion, comparable to Argentina
Active-Duty Military: 11,349, comparable to Mozambique
Other Factors: Atlantic port access; proximity to commercial opportunities in New York City.

33. Pennsylvania

pennsylvania on the map

Residents supporting secession: 16%
State Population: 13.08 million, comparable to Bolivia
State GDP: $998 billion, comparable to Saudi Arabia
Active-Duty Military: 2,157, comparable to Liberia
Other Factors: Top 10 in manufacturing; access to the Great Lakes and Atlantic Ocean.

32. Oregon

Oregon on the USA map

Residents supporting secession: 17%
State Population: 4.272 million, comparable to Panama
State GDP: $336.26 billion, comparable to Chile
Active-Duty Military: 2,485, comparable to Equitorial Guinea
Other Factors: Seaport on the Pacific Ocean, lots of natural resources.

31. North Carolina

North Carolina campaign rally | Charlotte City Skyline night scene

Residents supporting secession: 17%
State Population: 11.05 million, comparable to the United Arab Emirates
State GDP: $637.6 billion, comparable to Belgium
Active Duty Military: 91,077, comparable to Nepal
Other Factors: Atlantic ports; top 10 in agriculture and manufacturing.

30. Arizona

An overlook from atop Mountain Butte of sunset over downtown Phoenix Arizona

Residents supporting secession: 18%
State Population: 7.582 million, comparable to Turkmenistan
State GDP: $552.2 billion, comparable to Ireland
Active-Duty Military: 20,381, comparable to Georgia
Other Factors: Landlocked; international border with Mexico; top 10 mineral producer.

29. New Mexico

Residents supporting secession: 19%
State Population: 2.13 million, comparable to Slovenia
State GDP: $107.9 billion, comparable to Kenya
Active-Duty Military: 14,336, comparable to Denmark
Other Factors: Landlocked; international border with Mexico.

28. Maine

Bangor, Maine | Bangor, Maine

Residents supporting secession: 19%
State Population: 1.405 million, comparable to Estonia
State GDP: $85.8 billion, comparable to Luxembourg
Active-Duty Military: 1,836, comparable to Suriname
Other Factors: International border with Canada; ports on the Atlantic.

27. Mississippi

Mississippi Gulf Coast

Residents supporting secession: 19%
State Population: 2.943 million, comparable to Armenia
State GDP: $117.7 billion, comparable to Ecuador
Active-Duty Military: 11,527, comparable to Mozambique
Other Factors: Access to the Mississippi River and Gulf of Mexico.

26. Kentucky

Map of Kentucky, USA, world tourism, travel destination, world trade and economy

Residents supporting secession: 19%
State Population: 4.588 million, comparable to Panama
State GDP: $234.5 billion, comparable to Greece
Active-Duty Military: 31,856, comparable to Burundi
Other Factors: Ohio River access; landlocked.

25. South Carolina

South Carolina on the map of USA

Residents supporting secession: 19%
State Population: 5.479 million, comparable to Palestine
State GDP: $266.2 billion, comparable to Peru
Active-Duty Military: 33,740, comparable to Bolivia
Other Factors: Seaport on the Atlantic Ocean.

24. Virginia

Map of Virginia, USA, world tourism, travel destination, world trade and economy

Residents supporting secession: 19%
State Population: 8.811 million, comparable to Switzerland
State GDP: $601.2 billion, comparable to Sweden
Active-Duty Military: 126,145, comparable to Cambodia
Other Factors: Seaports on the Atlantic; controls access to the Chesapeake Bay; across the river from the national capital; produced 8 presidents.

23. Delaware

Welcome to Delaware road sign

Residents supporting secession: 20%
State Population: 1.052 million, comparable to Djibouti
State GDP: $103.253 billion, comparable to Bulgaria
Active-Duty Military: 3,700, comparable to Papua New Guinea
Other Factors: Atlantic Ocean access.

22. Hawaii

Hawaii | Waikiki Beach and Diamond Head Crater including the hotels and buildings in Waikiki, Honolulu, Oahu island, Hawaii. Waikiki Beach in the center of Honolulu has the largest number of visitors in Hawaii

Residents supporting secession: 20%
State Population: 1.446 million, comparable to Timor-Leste
State GDP: $89.4 billion, comparable to Costa Rica
Active-Duty Military: 44,423, comparable to Armenia
Other Factors: Formerly an independent country; strategic central Pacific location; cultural ties to Polynesia and Asia, massive tourism industry; strong sense of cultural identity; geographically distant from the rest of the U.S.

21. Idaho

Residents supporting secession: 20%
State Population: 2 million, comparable to Slovenia
State GDP: $95.9 billion, comparable to Uzbekistan
Active-Duty Military: 3,612, comparable to Papua New Guinea
Other Factors: Landlocked; international border with Canada.

20. Nevada

Nevada+city+skyline | New York-New York Hotel and Casino, Las Vegas Strip, Las Vegas, Nevada

Residents supporting secession: 21%
State Population: 3.267 million, comparable to Uruguay
State GDP: $198.4 billion, comparable to Hungary
Active-Duty Military: 12,375, comparable to Nicaragua
Other Factors: Landlocked, thinly populated, U.S. military bases; nuclear weapons; top 10 mineral producer.

19. Colorado

Residents supporting secession: 21%
State Population: 5.957 million, comparable to Denmark
State GDP: $447 billion, comparable to Bangladesh
Active-Duty Military: 39,647, comparable to Kazakhstan
Other Factors: Landlocked; nuclear ICBM sites.

18. Tennessee

Residents supporting secession: 21%
State Population: 7.228 million, comparable to Kyrgyzstan
State GDP: $549.7 billion, comparable to Ireland
Active-Duty Military: 18,160, comparable to Guatemala
Other Factors: Landlocked; access to the Mississippi River

17. Illinois

Map of Illinois, USA, world tourism, travel destination, world trade and economy

Residents supporting secession: 21%
State Population: 12.71 million, comparable to Bolivia
State GDP: $1.137 trillion, comparable to Indonesia
Active-Duty Military: 20,567, comparable to Georgia
Other Factors: Access to the Great Lakes and Mississippi River; top 10 in agriculture and manufacturing.

16. Alabama

Residents supporting secession: 22%
State Population: 5.158 million, comparable to Mauritania
State GDP: $247 billion, comparable to Algeria
Active-Duty Military: 13,469, comparable to Madagascar
Other Factors: Seaport on the Gulf of Mexico.

15. Kansas

Kanssas on the map of USA

Residents supporting secession: 23%
State Population: 2.971 million, comparable to Armenia
State GDP: $190.1 billion, comparable to Ukraine
Active-Duty Military: 19,769, comparable to Somalia
Other Factors: Landlocked, top 10 agricultural state.

14. Arkansas

Residents supporting secession: 23%
State Population: 3.088 million, comparable to Qatar
State GDP: $178.6 billion, comparable to Ukraine
Active-Duty Military: 5,029, comparable to Moldova
Other Factors: Landlocked; access to Mississippi River

13. Louisiana

Louisiana state on the map of USA

Residents supporting secession: 23%
State Population: 4.598 million, comparable to Panama
State GDP: $244.4 billion, comparable to Greece
Active-Duty Military: 15,607, comparable to Ghana
Other Factors: Seaport on the Gulf of Mexico, controls access to the Mississippi River; nuclear weapons.

12. Montana

Montana | Amtrak 'Empire Builder' @ Two Medicine Trestle Montana

Residents supporting secession: 24%
State Population: 1.137 million, comparable to Estonia
State GDP: $56.1 billion, comparable to Turkmenistan
Active-Duty Military: 3,354, comparable to Guyana
Other Factors: International border with Canada; mineral wealth; nuclear missile facilities.

11. Indiana

Residents supporting secession: 24%
State Population: 6.924 million, comparable to Paraguay
State GDP: $416.4 billion, comparable to Denmark
Active-Duty Military: 3,888, comparable to Guyana
Other Factors: Landlocked; access to the Great Lakes and the Ohio River; top 10 in agriculture and manufacturing.

10. Washington

Washington state map. Discover the Beauty of Washington State through this Map.

Residents supporting secession: 24%
State Population: 7.958 million, comparable to Laos
State GDP: $702 billion, comparable to Argentina
Active-Duty Military: 56,572, comparable to the Dominican Republic
Other Factors: Pacific coast port, international border with Canada; nuclear submarines.

9. Florida

Florida | miami | florida.

Residents Supporting Secession: 24%
State Population: 23.37 million, comparable to Taiwan
State GDP: $1.647 trillion, comparable to Spain
Active-Duty Military: 66,971, comparable to Canada
Other Factors: Ports on the Atlantic and Gulf of Mexico; cultural connections to Latin America and the Caribbean; strong tourism industry; a primary site of the U.S. space program; top 1o in mineral production.

8. West Virginia

Residents supporting secession: 25%
State Population: 1.77 million, comparable to North Macedonia
State GDP: $81.6 billion, comparable to Serbia
Active-Duty Military: 1,072, comparable to Cape Verde
Other Factors: Landlocked but has Ohio River access; extensive coal deposits.

7. Nebraska

Nebraska on the USA map

Residents supporting secession: 25%
State Population: 2 million, comparable to Slovenia
State GDP: $145 billion, comparable to Morocco
Active-Duty Military: 6,764, comparable to Estonia
Other Factors: Landlocked; top 10 in agriculture; nuclear ICBM sites.

6. Georgia

State of Georgia on the map of the USA

Residents supporting secession: 25%
State Population: 11.18 million, comparable to the United Arab Emirates
State GDP: $767.37 billion, comparable to Poland
Active Duty Military: 69,500, comparable to Romania
Other Factors: Ports on the Atlantic; nuclear submarines.

5. Oklahoma

Oklahoma | Bricktown, Oklahoma City

Residents supporting secession: 28%
State Population: 4.095 million, comparable to Panama
State GDP: $206.8 billion, comparable to Hungary
Active Duty Military: 18,625, comparable to Guatemala
Other Factors: Oil producer; land-locked, so little access to maritime trade.

4. New York

Residents supporting secession: 28%
State Population: 19.87 million, comparable to Chile
State GDP: $2.297 trillion, comparable to Canada
Active-Duty Military: 29,238, comparable to Sweden
Other Factors: International border with Canada; Atlantic Ocean port; hosts the United Nations; strong cultural identity; top 10 in manufacturing.

3. California

Residents supporting secession: 29%
State Population: 39.2 million, comparable to Morocco
State GDP: $3.9 trillion, comparable to India
Active-Duty Military: 156,418, comparable to Taiwan
Other Factors: Ports on the Pacific Ocean; international border with Mexico; cultural connections with Latin America; top 10 in agriculture, mining, and manufacturing; distinctive state culture

2. Texas

Texas Wind Farm

Residents supporting secession: 31%
State Population: 30.73 million, comparable to Madagascar
State GDP: $2.6 trillion, comparable to Italy
Active-Duty Military: 112,583, comparable to Poland
Other Factors: Previously an independent country; ports on the Gulf of Mexico; large oil reserves; top 10 in mining, agriculture, and manufacturing; international border with Mexico; space program command and control; distinctive state culture

1. Alaska

fairbanks+Alaska+skyline | Aerial view of Fairbanks Alaska skyline (Quintin Soloviev)

Residents supporting succession: 36%
State Population: 736,510, comparable to Guyana
State GDP: $54.1 billion, comparable to Jordan
Active-Duty Military: 19,707, comparable to Guatemala
Other factors: International border with Canada; maritime border with Russia; top 10 in mining; thinly populated; geographically distant from the rest of the country; oil producer

The post If Any State Was Going to Secede, It’d Be This One appeared first on 24/7 Wall St..