I need to make a quick investment decision—should I put my $50K in NIO or Rivian?

Everyone knows the electric vehicle market has cooled off. While EVs are still being sold and sales were up 15% in the fourth quarter, which was a new record for volume in any quarter, full-year sales were up only 7.3% higher.

That is a dramatic deceleration in the growth rate from 2023 when EV sales soared 49%. And the Q4 numbers could be skewed.

EV car buyers were hurrying to buy a new vehicle before the incoming Trump administration cut off tax credits for EV purchases. One of the first executive orders Trump signed after taking office eliminated EV mandates, froze EV infrastructure funding for things such as EV charging stations, and called for the “elimination of unfair subsidies and other ill-conceived government-imposed market distortions that favor EVs.”

That doesn’t mean EV sales are going away, just that they’re going to be harder to make. Investors are going to need to be more judicious in buying EV manufacturer stocks, too.

Rivian Automotive (NASDAQ:RIVN) and Nio (NYSE:NIO) are among the most closely followed EV stocks. Let’s see which one is the better buy for your $50,000 investment.

Nio (NIO)

Chinese EV maker Nio had a bumpy ride last year, but over the past three years the trend has been down. That might change in 2025. In December, Nio surprised the market with monthly sales of 31,138, the single-best month for the company.

While January’s sales numbers were dramatically lower — just 13,863 EVs were sold — it was a 38% spike from 2024. Unfortunately, it also broke a streak of eight consecutive months of selling 20,000 vehicles or more. The decline was caused in part by the Chinese New Year holiday, which disrupted production. ​​

The majority of those deliveries, or 7,951 vehicles, were from the company’s namesake Nio brand, with the remaining coming from its newer, family-oriented smart EV brand, Onvo.

Cumulatively, Nio has sold 685,427 vehicles and it notes has established itself as the leading luxury EV maker in China with a 40% share of the market for EVs selling at more than 300,000 renminbi (about $41,500).

Yet Nio introduced two new vehicles in December, the ET9 and the Firefly. They are supposed to be the EV maker’s future growth driver.s Where the Nio brand is only supposed to see moderate growth in 2025, the two new models are forecast to drive significantly more. Nio is calling for sales to double this year as a result, effectively selling some 440,000 EVs.

Although NIO stock is down 28% over the past year, it has the benefit of not being exposed to the U.S. market so even Trump’s tariffs on Chinese goods won’t be impacted. 

Rivian Automotive (RIVN)

U.S. electric SUV and commercial van maker Rivian Automotive hasn’t been nearly as successful as Nio. Its business keeps deteriorating, but it maintains it will deliver between 50,500 and 52,000 EVs for 2024 when it reports earnings on Feb. 20 and achieve “modest” gross profits. 

With the pull-forward of industry EV sales in the fourth quarter, it is likely to hit these goals or even exceed them. Whether it can maintain that pace is another question. Rivian and much of the rest of the EV market was slashing prices to get unsold inventory off dealer lots. But it introduced its new R2 SUV, a five-seater, that starts at $45,000, much better than the $70,000 the R1 sold for. It is also planning for the R3, a mid-size crossover, and the R3X performance vehicle. Both are expected to be cheaper than the R2.

But pricing is only half the equation. The growth of hybrid vehicles has been well-publicized as the new sweet spot for EV sales. Primarily because of concerns over battery range and insufficient charging infrastructure, EV buyers are choosing hybrids because they can rely upon fossil fuels to get them where they are going.

Toyota (NYSE:TM) dominates that market and Ford (NYSE:F) is switching to hybrids until full-battery models can prove their worth. Most legacy automakers are opting for a hybrid strategy, which could leave battery EVs behind.

The verdict

I’ll admit I’m not an EV fan and would choose a hybrid myself if forced to buy one. The U.S. market is also in tumult as industry subsidies are about to vanish, which could weigh heavily on Rivian. 

Because EVs sales in China are growing strongly (up 40% in 2024), I’d choose Nio as the stock to buy over Rivian.

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