Here's what markets face in the next few week
Here's what markets face in the next few weeks
Stocks had a rotten Thursday, but, after the close, the signals were clear markets would rebound on Friday.
And markets did shoot up on Friday. On a percentage basis, the Standard & Poor's 500 Index's 1.83% gain to 5,638.94 was its biggest since Donald Trump won the Presidential election in November, along with a similar percentage gain on Jan. 25.)
But Friday's gain could not prevent the S&P 500 from experiencing its fourth straight week of losses — it was off 2.3% for the week.
And the index is still off more than 8.2% since peaking on Feb. 19 and is off 4.1% this year.
After Thursday's drubbing, the S&P 500 finished down 10.2% from from its Feb. 19 peak.)
Related: Inflation's impact on Fed rate-cut bets may surprise you
Winter has weighed heavily on stocks
The S&P 500's slump on the week is not alone. The Nasdaq Composite Index was off for a fourth week in a row, and the venerable Dow Jones Industrial Average has fallen three out of the last four weeks.
The Nasdaq fell 2.4% for the week and is down 12.1% from its 52-week high of 20,204.58, reached on Dec. 16.
The Dow fell 3.1% on the week to 41,488.19 and is off 8% from its 52-week high on Dec. 4. Stocks like Tesla (TSLA) , controlled by Trump advisor Elon Musk, were getting hammered.
Tesla was up 3.8% in Friday's rally but was down nearly 5% on the week. The shares are down 48% from their 52-week high and off 38% for the year. Microsoft (MSFT) is down 8% on the year and 17% from its 52-week high reached in July 2024.
Even Walmart (WMT) shares are struggling. They ended Friday at $85.35, down nearly 19% from their mid-February all-time high.
But gold surges, interest rates fall
Gold settled above $3,000 per troy ounce for the first time on Friday as many investors looked for really safe havens.
Interest rates moved lower as bonds attracted money. The 10-year Treasury yield was at 4.317% on Friday little changed for the week but down from 4.8% in mid-January.
Mortgage rates were just under 7% on Friday, according to Mortgage News Daily. 
The President's tariff talk has freaked investors
The biggest trigger that's upended the market in the last four weeks or so has been Donald Trump's almost daily round of tariff threats. The big layoffs in the federal workforce since he took office on Jan. 20 are also a problem.
But tariffs are driving investors nutty because so few people in banking, economic forecasting and money management were expecting Trump to be so focused on using tariffs as a weapon. And his threats, often pulled back a day or so later, has rattled markets.
“Until the haphazard tit-for-tat tariff threats are behind us, the uncertainty means markets will remain on edge,” John Canavan, the lead U.S. analyst at Oxford Economics, said in a note on Friday, according to The New York Times.
Forecaster Ed Yardeni had been among the most bullish of market analysts, seeing the S&P 500 ending 2025 at 7,000. This week, his Yardeni Research gave up that forecast and cut its target to 6,400. It cut its 2026 forecast from 7,200 from 8,000.
"There's a potential to be bullish again if (Trump) would back off the tariffs," Yardeni told theStreet.
More Economic Analysis:
- U.S. consumers are wilting under renewed stagflation risks
- Jobs reports provide critical look at economy, could roil markets
- Fed inflation gauge indicates big changes in key economic drive
But he also worries that the economy could slide into a recession.
Big roadblocks ahead
The question at the end of the week was if the market has bottomed and is ready to rebound.
Yardeni and many analysts caution against thinking the combo of Thursday's slump and Friday's rally signaled a market bottom.
One issue is that relative strength indexes — measures of momentum — may not be low enough. A relative strength index measures at whether a stock or index has fallen so fast (or risen so fast) that the move gets ahead of itself.
A reading below 30 suggests something is oversold. Above 70 signals it's overbought.
On Thursday, the RSI for the S&P 500 stood at 27.854 — oversold but not outrageously so. The Dow was at 27. The Nasdaq was 29.
To trigger a true bottom, the RSIs of the S&P 500 and Nasdaq will probably hit 25.
That makes some sense. The real world has to weigh in.
Yardeni said Friday the stock market still faces a number of roadblocks that could keep the indexes reeling from volatility.
- The potential for weakening consumer spending. University of Michigan's Consumer Sentiment Index shows Americans are increasingly worried about tariffs and the economy and the jobs picture.
- The Federal Reserve's meeting Tuesday and Wednesday. The central bank is expected to hold rates steady.
- Nvidia's big conference this week.
- The Trump Administration's vow to impose reciprocal tariffs on April 2.
The last issue is the big one.
The Wall Street Journal reported Friday on a conference call of investors, led by David Tepper of Appaloosa Management, trying to figure out how the Trump administration will affect the economy and markets.
After an hour, they realized none of them were sure what policies Trump might pursue next.
Related: Veteran fund manager who correctly forecast S&P 500 crash updates outlook
