Disney Is Still in Trouble

Walt Disney Co. (NYSE: DIS) stock rallied from two years of horrible performance when it announced earnings in mid-November. Since then, it has traded flat. Over the past year, the shares have risen less than 2%, while the S&P 500 has increased 16%. Disney’s earnings news turned out to be less than compelling.

While the market briefly viewed Disney’s recent numbers as positive, they weren’t. Revenue rose only 5% to $24.7 billion. Per-share earnings were up 35% to $1.40, but part of that is that it stopped losing money in streaming after losses that stretched into the billions of dollars. Streaming margins are still less than modest. Disney+ subscriber count was flat at 125 million. This mediocre number compares to industry leader Netflix, which is still growing. In its most recent quarter, subscribers rose 15% yearly to 301 million.

Disney+ and its other large streaming platform, Hulu, have trouble competing against Netflix, Amazon Prime Video, Paramount+, Peacock, and Max, as well as a number of niche streaming channels. Americans do not subscribe to half a dozen services, and some channels get elbowed out.

Disney’s Achilles’ heel is its theme park business, “Experiences.” Its revenue rose only 3% last quarter to $9.4 billion. Operating income was flat at $3.1 billion and is 60% of Disney’s total operating income.

Investors worry that Disney’s parks have gotten too expensive for middle-class consumers. The New York Times recently reported, “As Disney has raised the cost of tickets and hotel rooms at its theme parks, and added pricey, difficult-to-navigate tools, even its most loyal fans are asking themselves if they should rethink their vacations.”

Has Disney’s growth tapped out? Based on recent numbers, it never happened, and that is not likely to change.

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