The Trump Shift

During Donald Trump’s first term as president, critics used to ask, Can you imagine the outcry if a Democrat had done this? As Trump begins his second, the relevant question is Can you imagine the outcry if Trump had done this eight years ago?

Barely 24 hours into this new presidency, Trump has already taken a series of steps that would have caused widespread outrage and mass demonstrations if he had taken them during his first day, week, or year as president, in 2017. Most appallingly, he pardoned more than 1,500 January 6 rioters, including some involved in violence. (Of course, back then, who could have imagined that a president would attempt to stay in power despite losing, or that he would later return to the White House having won the next election?). In addition, he purported to end birthright citizenship, exited the World Health Organization, attempted to turn large portions of the civil service into patronage jobs, and issued an executive order defining gender as a binary.

Although it is early, these steps have, for the most part, been met with muted response, including from a dazed left and press corps. That’s a big shift from eight years ago, when hundreds of thousands of demonstrators gathered in Washington, and Americans flocked to airports at midnight to try to thwart Trump’s travel ban.

[David A. Graham: Trump isn’t bluffing]

The difference arises from three big factors. First, Trump has worked hard to desensitize the population to his most outrageous statements. As I wrote a year ago, forecasting how a second Trump presidency might unfold, the first time he says something, people are shocked. The second time, people notice that Trump is at it again. By the third time, it’s background noise.

Second, Trump has figured out the value of a shock-and-awe strategy. By signing so many controversial executive orders at once, he’s made it difficult for anyone to grasp the scale of the changes he’s made, and he’s splintered a coalition of interests that might otherwise be allied against whatever single thing he had done most recently. Third, American society has changed. People aren’t just less outraged by things Trump is doing; almost a decade of the Trump era has shifted some aspects of American culture far to the right.

Even Trump’s inaugural address yesterday demonstrates the pattern. Audiences were perplexed by his “American carnage” speech four years ago. George W. Bush reportedly deemed it “weird shit,” earthily and accurately. His second inaugural seemed only slightly less bleak—or have we all just become accustomed to this sort of stuff from a president?

[Read: The coming assault on birthright citizenship]

One test of that question is Trump’s executive order on birthright citizenship, which attempts to shift an interpretation of the Constitution that has been in place for more than 150 years. Now “the privilege of United States citizenship does not automatically extend to persons born in the United States,” Trump stated in an order signed yesterday. Lawyers are ready; the order was immediately challenged in court, and may not stand. In any case, the shift that Trump is trying to effect would have a far greater impact than his 2017 effort to bar certain foreign citizens from entering the U.S. Birthright citizenship is not just a policy but a theoretical idea of who is American. But Trump has been threatening to do this for years now, so it came as no surprise when he followed through.

In another way, he is also trying to shift what is seen as American. Four years ago, almost the entire nation was appalled by the January 6 riot. As my colleagues Annie Joy Williams and Gisela Salim-Peyer note, UN Ambassador-Designate Elise Stefanik called it “un-American”; Secretary of State Marco Rubio called it “anti-American.” Yesterday, Republicans applauded as Trump freed members of that mob whom he has called “hostages.” That included not just people who broke into the Capitol but many who engaged in violence. Just this month, Vice President J. D. Vance declared, “If you committed violence on that day, obviously you shouldn't be pardoned.” Even Vance has become desensitized to Trump. (Heavy users become numb to even strong narcotics.)

[Read: Republican leaders once thought January 6 was “tragic”]

But the percentage of Americans who say they disapprove of January 6 has also gone down as distance from the events has grown and propaganda has taken hold. Support for immigration has decreased as well. The WHO exit might have raised more of a fuss before the coronavirus pandemic; now the failures of public-health authorities and insistent attacks on them from politicians including Trump have convinced many people not just that these bodies need reform but that they aren’t needed at all. It’s not just Silicon Valley titans who have acquiesced to Trump and taken up his ideas. Although many people still oppose the president’s agenda, the 2024 election was the first time in three tries that he was able to win a plurality of the popular vote.

In recent weeks, Trump has embarked on a baffling crusade against Panama’s ownership of the Panama Canal. He claimed (incorrectly) that the canal is under Chinese control and suggested the U.S. should go back on the treaty that gave Panama control over the canal zone. Initially, this produced confusion. People were even more surprised when he refused to rule out military action (caveat lector). Still, one couldn’t be sure whether Trump was messing around or serious. Then he brought it up again during yesterday’s inaugural address. By the time Trump sends an expeditionary force to seize the canal, will anyone even raise an eyebrow?