The Riskiest Places China Is Investing In

24/7 Wall St. Insights

• China has invested more than $950 billion in overseas infrastructure projects since 2013.
• Many investments are in fragile states with a high degree of political instability.
• Some of the riskiest investments are in violent countries throughout the Middle East, Africa, and Latin America.
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Over the past decade, no country has invested more in the rest of the world than China. Since commencing its Belt and Road Initiative in 2013, China has invested over $950 billion in infrastructure and other development projects over 140 countries, building roads and railways, cultivating energy supplies, and expanding its influence across the globe.

A significant share of China’s investment activity is targeted at fragile states with political instability and frequent outbreaks of political violence. While deaths from conventional war have declined since World War II, violent conflicts between non-state actors are on the rise around the world, exacerbated by rising geopolitical tension and aided by technological advances in autonomous weapons and cybertechnology.

Since 2017, China has poured more than $70 billion into high-risk countries – those with at least 500 incidents of political violence in 2024 – throughout the Middle East, Africa, and Latin America. In many of these countries, Chinese investments could be threatened by political militias and rebel groups that are slowly gaining regional power. On the other hand, political instability may turn China’s commercial assets into soft military power. A closer look at the data reveals the riskiest places China is investing in today.

To determine the riskiest countries China is investing in, 24/7 Wall St. reviewed data on development projects financed by China in foreign countries from AidData, a research lab at the College of William & Mary. Countries with at least one incident of political violence per 100,000 residents from March 1, 2024 to March 19, 2025 were ranked based on the total, inflation-adjusted value of projects funded by the Chinese government and state-owned institutions from 2017 to 2021. Financial values were converted from original currencies to constant 2021 U.S. dollars and aggregated according to AidData recommendations. 

Data on violent conflicts is from the independent nonprofit Armed Conflict Location & Event Data (ACLED). ACLED defines violence against civilians as violent events where an organized armed group inflicts violence upon unarmed non-combatants. Political violence counts for March 1, 2024 to March 19, 2025 were adjusted for country size using population data from the World Bank. Supplemental data on fatalities due to violence against civilians is also from ACLED.

25. Yemen

• Total Chinese investment, 2017-2021: $191.7 million
• Chinese investment per capita, 2017-2021: $6.1 per resident
• Incidence of political violence last year: 5.8 events per 100,000 residents (2,282 total)
• Fatalities from political violence last year: 25 deaths per 100,000 residents (1,901 total)
• Deadliest political violence incidents last year: Armed clash in Shurayjah on April 3 (21 fatalities), armed clash in Hisn Ghabar on September 9 (20 fatalities), suicide bomb in Umm Surrah Junction on August 16 (17 fatalities), armed clash in Shurayjah on June 5 (16 fatalities), armed clash in Khubzah on January 11 (16 fatalities)

24. Sudan

• Total Chinese investment, 2017-2021: $196.7 million
• Chinese investment per capita, 2017-2021: $4.6 per resident
• Incidence of political violence last year: 10.7 events per 100,000 residents (5,375 total)
• Fatalities from political violence last year: 24 deaths per 100,000 residents (17,854 total)
• Deadliest political violence incidents last year: Armed clash in Tamboul on October 22 (520 fatalities), non-state actor overtakes territory in Um Algura on December 7 (280 fatalities), armed clash in Tamboul on October 20 (205 fatalities), armed clash in El Fasher on November 17 (200 fatalities), armed clash in Madu on October 1 (163 fatalities)

23. Mali

• Total Chinese investment, 2017-2021: $280.3 million
• Chinese investment per capita, 2017-2021: $13.6 per resident
• Incidence of political violence last year: 6.2 events per 100,000 residents (1,472 total)
• Fatalities from political violence last year: 23 deaths per 100,000 residents (4,134 total)
• Deadliest political violence incidents last year: Armed clash in Bamako on September 17 (90 fatalities), attack in Abeibara on July 3 (60 fatalities), armed clash in Kobe on February 7 (53 fatalities), armed clash in Achibriche on July 25 (51 fatalities), armed clash in Achibriche on July 26 (50 fatalities)

22. Central African Republic

• Total Chinese investment, 2017-2021: $289.8 million
• Chinese investment per capita, 2017-2021: $55.5 per resident
• Incidence of political violence last year: 7.0 events per 100,000 residents (359 total)
• Fatalities from political violence last year: 22 deaths per 100,000 residents (872 total)
• Deadliest political violence incidents last year: Attack in Kouki on March 9 (60 fatalities), attack in Bozoum on February 16 (60 fatalities), attack in Beltoum on February 15 (50 fatalities), armed clash in Sikikede on March 7 (25 fatalities), attack in Dembia on October 6 (20 fatalities)

21. Venezuela

• Total Chinese investment, 2017-2021: $319.1 million
• Chinese investment per capita, 2017-2021: $10.9 per resident
• Incidence of political violence last year: 1.7 events per 100,000 residents (487 total)
• Fatalities from political violence last year: 21 deaths per 100,000 residents (528 total)
• Deadliest political violence incidents last year: Armed clash in El Consejo on April 19 (6 fatalities), excessive force against protesters in Maracay on July 29 (6 fatalities), armed clash in Zaraza on August 7 (6 fatalities), armed clash in Ocumare del Tuy on February 10 (6 fatalities), armed clash in Caracas – Sucre on March 12 (6 fatalities)

20. Lebanon

• Total Chinese investment, 2017-2021: $369.4 million
• Chinese investment per capita, 2017-2021: $63.5 per resident
• Incidence of political violence last year: 207.0 events per 100,000 residents (11,951 total)
• Fatalities from political violence last year: 20 deaths per 100,000 residents (3,775 total)
• Deadliest political violence incidents last year: Air/drone strike in Sinai on September 23 (60 fatalities), air/drone strike in El Babliye on September 23 (60 fatalities), air/drone strike in Hadath on September 23 (60 fatalities), air/drone strike in Saksakiyah on September 23 (60 fatalities), air/drone strike in Kharayeb on September 23 (60 fatalities)

19. Jamaica

• Total Chinese investment, 2017-2021: $455.3 million
• Chinese investment per capita, 2017-2021: $161.7 per resident
• Incidence of political violence last year: 11.8 events per 100,000 residents (334 total)
• Fatalities from political violence last year: 19 deaths per 100,000 residents (357 total)
• Deadliest political violence incidents last year: Attack in Four Paths on August 11 (8 fatalities), armed clash in Kingston on October 21 (5 fatalities), attack in Kingston on November 25 (5 fatalities), attack in Central Village on March 12 (4 fatalities), armed clash in Kingston on May 8 (4 fatalities)

18. Madagascar

• Total Chinese investment, 2017-2021: $552.4 million
• Chinese investment per capita, 2017-2021: $20.1 per resident
• Incidence of political violence last year: 1.5 events per 100,000 residents (454 total)
• Fatalities from political violence last year: 18 deaths per 100,000 residents (444 total)
• Deadliest political violence incidents last year: Mob violence in Tanandava on August 26 (10 fatalities), armed clash in Ambolotarakely on October 13 (8 fatalities), armed clash in Imanombo on November 14 (8 fatalities), armed clash in Andranomavokely on September 9 (7 fatalities), armed clash in Anjezika on May 23 (6 fatalities)

17. Ukraine

• Total Chinese investment, 2017-2021: $598.6 million
• Chinese investment per capita, 2017-2021: $13.5 per resident
• Incidence of political violence last year: 147.6 events per 100,000 residents (55,700 total)
• Fatalities from political violence last year: 17 deaths per 100,000 residents (81,810 total)
• Deadliest political violence incidents last year: Armed clash in Pokrovsk on May 20 (400 fatalities), armed clash in Lyptsi on May 20 (263 fatalities), armed clash in Kherson on November 11 (230 fatalities), armed clash in Kherson on March 18 (228 fatalities), armed clash in Pokrovsk on June 5 (220 fatalities)

16. Papua New Guinea

• Total Chinese investment, 2017-2021: $913.3 million
• Chinese investment per capita, 2017-2021: $95.8 per resident
• Incidence of political violence last year: 1.9 events per 100,000 residents (194 total)
• Fatalities from political violence last year: 16 deaths per 100,000 residents (255 total)
• Deadliest political violence incidents last year: Sexual violence in Tambari on July 18 (23 fatalities), mob violence in Kanome on April 19 (15 fatalities), mob violence in Kanome on April 20 (15 fatalities), mob violence in Tambitanis on May 25 (8 fatalities), mob violence in Sakarip on November 28 (8 fatalities)

15. Myanmar

• Total Chinese investment, 2017-2021: $1.1 billion
• Chinese investment per capita, 2017-2021: $21.4 per resident
• Incidence of political violence last year: 23.6 events per 100,000 residents (12,789 total)
• Fatalities from political violence last year: 15 deaths per 100,000 residents (19,683 total)
• Deadliest political violence incidents last year: Non-state actor overtakes territory in Maung Shwe Lay on September 5 (400 fatalities), non-state actor overtakes territory in Maungdaw on July 6 (350 fatalities), non-state actor overtakes territory in Zu Kaing on June 23 (201 fatalities), air/drone strike in Maungdaw on August 5 (200 fatalities), non-state actor overtakes territory in Momauk on August 19 (200 fatalities)

14. Colombia

• Total Chinese investment, 2017-2021: $1.2 billion
• Chinese investment per capita, 2017-2021: $23.9 per resident
• Incidence of political violence last year: 4.7 events per 100,000 residents (2,456 total)
• Fatalities from political violence last year: 14 deaths per 100,000 residents (1,924 total)
• Deadliest political violence incidents last year: Shelling/artillery/missile attack in El Plateado on April 25 (15 fatalities), armed clash in Remedios on May 22 (13 fatalities), armed clash in Tame on August 12 (13 fatalities), armed clash in Buenaventura on September 8 (12 fatalities), armed clash in San Jose de la Fragua on May 25 (11 fatalities)

13. Niger

• Total Chinese investment, 2017-2021: $1.2 billion
• Chinese investment per capita, 2017-2021: $51.2 per resident
• Incidence of political violence last year: 1.5 events per 100,000 residents (397 total)
• Fatalities from political violence last year: 13 deaths per 100,000 residents (1,441 total)
• Deadliest political violence incidents last year: Armed clash in Bouloundjounga on August 26 (57 fatalities), armed clash in Bankilare on March 19 (53 fatalities), armed clash in Boni on May 20 (51 fatalities), air/drone strike in Banizoumbou on September 21 (50 fatalities), armed clash in Eknewane on September 18 (45 fatalities)

12. South Sudan

• Total Chinese investment, 2017-2021: $1.3 billion
• Chinese investment per capita, 2017-2021: $126.5 per resident
• Incidence of political violence last year: 8.5 events per 100,000 residents (975 total)
• Fatalities from political violence last year: 12 deaths per 100,000 residents (2,077 total)
• Deadliest political violence incidents last year: Non-state actor overtakes territory in Nasir on March 4 (70 fatalities), armed clash in Magwi on January 31 (41 fatalities), armed clash in Maper on March 26 (38 fatalities), attack in Paliang on August 16 (33 fatalities), attack in Kuron on April 23 (32 fatalities)

11. Benin

• Total Chinese investment, 2017-2021: $1.4 billion
• Chinese investment per capita, 2017-2021: $110.3 per resident
• Incidence of political violence last year: 1.8 events per 100,000 residents (247 total)
• Fatalities from political violence last year: 11 deaths per 100,000 residents (361 total)
• Deadliest political violence incidents last year: Armed clash in Point Triple on January 8 (70 fatalities), armed clash in Karimama on February 15 (23 fatalities), armed clash in Park W on July 24 (12 fatalities), attack in Mekrou on January 14 (11 fatalities), armed clash in Banikoara on February 15 (10 fatalities)

10. Mexico

• Total Chinese investment, 2017-2021: $1.4 billion
• Chinese investment per capita, 2017-2021: $11.2 per resident
• Incidence of political violence last year: 6.3 events per 100,000 residents (8,191 total)
• Fatalities from political violence last year: 10 deaths per 100,000 residents (8,714 total)
• Deadliest political violence incidents last year: Armed clash in Berriozabal on March 25 (30 fatalities), armed clash in Ninos Heroes on March 31 (25 fatalities), armed clash in La Concordia on June 26 (20 fatalities), armed clash in Tecpan de Galeana on October 24 (19 fatalities), armed clash in Zirandaro de los Chavez on May 11 (16 fatalities)

9. Cameroon

• Total Chinese investment, 2017-2021: $1.6 billion
• Chinese investment per capita, 2017-2021: $63.6 per resident
• Incidence of political violence last year: 9.1 events per 100,000 residents (2,575 total)
• Fatalities from political violence last year: 9 deaths per 100,000 residents (1,988 total)
• Deadliest political violence incidents last year: Armed clash in Darak on April 30 (100 fatalities), armed clash in Lake Chad on June 30 (70 fatalities), armed clash in Bakassi Peninsula on November 14 (17 fatalities), armed clash in Bekumu on April 18 (15 fatalities), armed clash in Abana on November 27 (15 fatalities)

8. Democratic Republic of the Congo

• Total Chinese investment, 2017-2021: $2.6 billion
• Chinese investment per capita, 2017-2021: $28.4 per resident
• Incidence of political violence last year: 2.0 events per 100,000 residents (2,085 total)
• Fatalities from political violence last year: 8 deaths per 100,000 residents (5,618 total)
• Deadliest political violence incidents last year: Mob violence in Kinshasa – Selembao on September 1 (200 fatalities), attack in Manzia on February 11 (70 fatalities), shelling/artillery/missile attack in Sake on May 28 (65 fatalities), non-state actor overtakes territory in Goma – Majengo on January 27 (59 fatalities), armed clash in Goma – Bujovu on January 28 (59 fatalities)

7. Mozambique

• Total Chinese investment, 2017-2021: $2.8 billion
• Chinese investment per capita, 2017-2021: $93.4 per resident
• Incidence of political violence last year: 1.3 events per 100,000 residents (422 total)
• Fatalities from political violence last year: 7 deaths per 100,000 residents (500 total)
• Deadliest political violence incidents last year: Mob violence in Matola on December 25 (33 fatalities), armed clash in Limala on May 29 (24 fatalities), armed clash in Mucojo on September 25 (14 fatalities), armed clash in Nanoa on November 17 (12 fatalities), armed clash in Nacuale on November 17 (12 fatalities)

6. Kenya

• Total Chinese investment, 2017-2021: $3.2 billion
• Chinese investment per capita, 2017-2021: $63.2 per resident
• Incidence of political violence last year: 2.0 events per 100,000 residents (1,116 total)
• Fatalities from political violence last year: 6 deaths per 100,000 residents (757 total)
• Deadliest political violence incidents last year: Armed clash in Todenyang on February 22 (28 fatalities), mob violence in Endarasha on September 5 (21 fatalities), armed clash in El Wak on July 11 (9 fatalities), armed clash in Qarsa on December 22 (9 fatalities), remote explosive/landmine/IED in Welmerer on March 9 (8 fatalities)

5. Ethiopia

• Total Chinese investment, 2017-2021: $4.4 billion
• Chinese investment per capita, 2017-2021: $38.2 per resident
• Incidence of political violence last year: 1.9 events per 100,000 residents (2,505 total)
• Fatalities from political violence last year: 5 deaths per 100,000 residents (9,456 total)
• Deadliest political violence incidents last year: Armed clash in Shikute on September 19 (150 fatalities), armed clash in Gohatsion on September 19 (150 fatalities), attack in Ykaho on July 9 (80 fatalities), armed clash in Adet on October 8 (73 fatalities), armed clash in Yizora on August 16 (69 fatalities)

4. Iraq

• Total Chinese investment, 2017-2021: $5.7 billion
• Chinese investment per capita, 2017-2021: $137.8 per resident
• Incidence of political violence last year: 14.5 events per 100,000 residents (6,523 total)
• Fatalities from political violence last year: 4 deaths per 100,000 residents (925 total)
• Deadliest political violence incidents last year: Armed clash in Wadi al Ghadf on August 29 (16 fatalities), armed clash in Jabal Bor on October 22 (9 fatalities), armed clash in Ar Rutba on October 24 (9 fatalities), armed clash in Hamrin Mountains – Kirkuk on December 30 (9 fatalities), air/drone strike in Hamrin Mountains – Kirkuk on October 28 (8 fatalities)

3. Nigeria

• Total Chinese investment, 2017-2021: $8.6 billion
• Chinese investment per capita, 2017-2021: $42.2 per resident
• Incidence of political violence last year: 1.9 events per 100,000 residents (4,396 total)
• Fatalities from political violence last year: 3 deaths per 100,000 residents (9,884 total)
• Deadliest political violence incidents last year: Air/drone strike in Marte on June 4 (146 fatalities), armed clash in Kundu on July 24 (100 fatalities), armed clash in Tumbun Gini on August 1 (100 fatalities), armed clash in Bama on January 23 (100 fatalities), air/drone strike in Ruwan Godiya on June 15 (80 fatalities)

2. Brazil

• Total Chinese investment, 2017-2021: $13.8 billion
• Chinese investment per capita, 2017-2021: $65.3 per resident
• Incidence of political violence last year: 4.5 events per 100,000 residents (9,473 total)
• Fatalities from political violence last year: 2 deaths per 100,000 residents (7,582 total)
• Deadliest political violence incidents last year: Armed clash in Salvador on March 4 (12 fatalities), attack in Vicosa do Ceara on June 20 (8 fatalities), attack in Recife on January 12 (7 fatalities), armed clash in Alto Garcas on March 6 (6 fatalities), attack in Rio de Janeiro – West Zone on April 15 (6 fatalities)

1. Russia

• Total Chinese investment, 2017-2021: $22.8 billion
• Chinese investment per capita, 2017-2021: $157.8 per resident
• Incidence of political violence last year: 11.3 events per 100,000 residents (16,288 total)
• Fatalities from political violence last year: 1 deaths per 100,000 residents (5,523 total)
• Deadliest political violence incidents last year: Attack in Krasnogorsk on March 22 (139 fatalities), shelling/artillery/missile attack in Glushkovo on September 12 (100 fatalities), armed clash in Darino on November 11 (90 fatalities), armed clash in Kozinka on March 18 (83 fatalities), armed clash in Kozinka on March 20 (83 fatalities)

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