Sunday links: trying not to overreact
MarketsHow often do corrections turn into bear markets? (awealthofcommonsense.com)How big was Friday's market move? (priceactionlab.com)Markets hate unpredictability. (ft.com)RatesThe 10-year Treasury now yield a tick over 4%. (morningstar.com)Tariffs finally cracked the junk bond market. (ft.com)StrategyThere is no playbook for what is happening. (tker.co)You learn your true risk tolerance in a bear market. (blairbellecurve.com)Don't kid yourself. You don't know what is coming next. (albertbridgecapital.com)A bear market checklist, first do no harm. (morningstar.com)GovernmentIf due process can be denied non-citizens, it can be denied to citizens as well. (nytimes.com)The logical endpoint of single-party rule is public corruption. (yahoo.com)This freshman Congressman campaigned on banning stock trading in Congress. Now he is trading up a storm. (nytimes.com)PolicyGood luck trying to fact check DOGE claims. (christianthwaites.substack.com)There is no state-level substitute for FEMA. (wapo.st)The CDC has been gutted. (wired.com)It's a good thing we don't have a cybersecurity problem. (axios.com)Don't be surprised if the IRS is soon politicized. (msn.com)People don't like seeing their life's work put in the 'wood chipper.' (nytimes.com)TariffsJames Surowiecki, "There is no good economic reason the U.S. should have zero bilateral trade deficits; there is no chance that we will eliminate all of them, and if we did, it would be an economic disaster..." (theatlantic.com)It's hard to overstate how big a break with history this new tariff regime is. (msn.com)Congress is supposed to set tariff policy, not the President. (scottsumner.substack.com)The administration misapplied its own tariff 'formula.' (aei.org)Tariffs are another manifestation of Trump's grievances with the world. (axios.com)Econ 101, why tariffs raise prices. (marginalrevolution.com)A short history of tariffs. (awealthofcommonsense.com)ManufacturingThe cost to build a manufacturing facility in the U.S. just went up. (wsj.com)Battery and EV manufacturing projects are getting cancelled. (msn.com)EconomyHow we in the U.S. convinced ourselves that life is so bad that we had to blow things up. (disciplinefunds.com)It's time to go on recession watch. (calculatedriskblog.com)On the irony of the U.S. importing eggs. (ft.com)The economic schedule for the coming week. (calculatedriskblog.com)Earlier on Abnormal ReturnsTop clicks this week on the site. (abnormalreturns.com)What you missed in our Saturday linkfest. (abnormalreturns.com)You can now follow us on Bluesky. (bsky.app)Are you signed up for daily e-mail newsletter? Well, you should be. (abnormalreturns.com)Mixed mediaJustin Wolfers, "(T)ariffs don’t distort just your buying decisions; they also distort what businesses make." (nytimes.com)Daniel Drezner, "Donald Trump is president. There are no adults in the room to constrain him." (danieldrezner.substack.com)Peter Wehner, "Trump is an agent of chaos, and chaos has a human cost." (theatlantic.com)
Markets
- How often do corrections turn into bear markets? (awealthofcommonsense.com)
- How big was Friday's market move? (priceactionlab.com)
- Markets hate unpredictability. (ft.com)
Rates
- The 10-year Treasury now yield a tick over 4%. (morningstar.com)
- Tariffs finally cracked the junk bond market. (ft.com)
Strategy
- There is no playbook for what is happening. (tker.co)
- You learn your true risk tolerance in a bear market. (blairbellecurve.com)
- Don't kid yourself. You don't know what is coming next. (albertbridgecapital.com)
- A bear market checklist, first do no harm. (morningstar.com)
Government
- If due process can be denied non-citizens, it can be denied to citizens as well. (nytimes.com)
- The logical endpoint of single-party rule is public corruption. (yahoo.com)
- This freshman Congressman campaigned on banning stock trading in Congress. Now he is trading up a storm. (nytimes.com)
Policy
- Good luck trying to fact check DOGE claims. (christianthwaites.substack.com)
- There is no state-level substitute for FEMA. (wapo.st)
- The CDC has been gutted. (wired.com)
- It's a good thing we don't have a cybersecurity problem. (axios.com)
- Don't be surprised if the IRS is soon politicized. (msn.com)
- People don't like seeing their life's work put in the 'wood chipper.' (nytimes.com)
Tariffs
- James Surowiecki, "There is no good economic reason the U.S. should have zero bilateral trade deficits; there is no chance that we will eliminate all of them, and if we did, it would be an economic disaster..." (theatlantic.com)
- It's hard to overstate how big a break with history this new tariff regime is. (msn.com)
- Congress is supposed to set tariff policy, not the President. (scottsumner.substack.com)
- The administration misapplied its own tariff 'formula.' (aei.org)
- Tariffs are another manifestation of Trump's grievances with the world. (axios.com)
- Econ 101, why tariffs raise prices. (marginalrevolution.com)
- A short history of tariffs. (awealthofcommonsense.com)
Manufacturing
- The cost to build a manufacturing facility in the U.S. just went up. (wsj.com)
- Battery and EV manufacturing projects are getting cancelled. (msn.com)
Economy
- How we in the U.S. convinced ourselves that life is so bad that we had to blow things up. (disciplinefunds.com)
- It's time to go on recession watch. (calculatedriskblog.com)
- On the irony of the U.S. importing eggs. (ft.com)
- The economic schedule for the coming week. (calculatedriskblog.com)
Earlier on Abnormal Returns
- Top clicks this week on the site. (abnormalreturns.com)
- What you missed in our Saturday linkfest. (abnormalreturns.com)
- You can now follow us on Bluesky. (bsky.app)
- Are you signed up for daily e-mail newsletter? Well, you should be. (abnormalreturns.com)
Mixed media
- Justin Wolfers, "(T)ariffs don’t distort just your buying decisions; they also distort what businesses make." (nytimes.com)
- Daniel Drezner, "Donald Trump is president. There are no adults in the room to constrain him." (danieldrezner.substack.com)
- Peter Wehner, "Trump is an agent of chaos, and chaos has a human cost." (theatlantic.com)
