Paxton weighs Cornyn challenge as Texas GOP rift deepens

Texas Attorney General Ken Paxton (R) is weighing a primary challenge to Sen. John Cornyn (R) in what could be the next high-profile proxy battle between the two competing wings of the state’s GOP.

Paxton told Fox News in an interview on Monday that he is considering a bid for Cornyn’s Senate seat in 2026 as he speaks with various groups in Texas, saying a decision is likely in the “next couple of months.” If Paxton runs, the primary would likely be one of the most expensive in the country and the toughest election in both men’s careers.

It would also further illustrate the ongoing rift within the Texas Republican Party as the establishment wing and hard-liners fight for control.

“The right wing is ascendant,” said Republican strategist Brendan Steinhauser, who ran Cornyn’s 2014 campaign. “It doesn’t necessarily mean they have more members in the [state] Legislature than the other wing of the party, but it means that the zeitgeist is very, very conservative and obviously very pro-Trump.”

Paxton’s statement is no surprise to those in Texas politics, as he has been rumored as a possible Senate candidate for months, if not years. And it would come after a back-and-forth has already been brewing between him and Cornyn, who has served in the Senate since 2002 and would be seeking his fifth term in office. 

Paxton has often criticized Cornyn as a “RINO,” an acronym for “Republican in name only” that more right-leaning Republicans use to attack more moderate or mainstream party members. He’s gone after the incumbent over issues like his support for sending additional aid to Ukraine to repel Russia’s invasion and his bipartisan work to pass a gun control bill following the 2022 shooting at an elementary school in Uvalde, Texas. 

And Cornyn has pushed back against Paxton over his record and controversies that have stuck around him throughout his time as attorney general. 

After Paxton slammed Cornyn’s support for aid to Ukraine as an indication he “would stay up all night to defend other countries' borders, but not America,” Cornyn responded that Paxton was “pushing Russian propaganda.” 

While Cornyn was being considered a possible successor to Sen. Mitch McConnell (R-Ky.) as Senate Republican leader last year, Paxton said Cornyn would likely not be an effective leader because he’s “anti-gun” and “anti-Trump.” Cornyn endorsed Trump during the 2024 GOP primaries but not until after he won the New Hampshire primary. Paxton has argued that he himself is a closer and more loyal ally of the president. 

Cornyn in response took aim at legal troubles that Paxton has faced, saying “Hard to run from prison, Ken.” 

Paxton was indicted in 2015, his first year in office, on charges of securities fraud over allegations that while a state legislator he solicited investments for a server company without disclosing that he was being paid by that company. Paxton pleaded not guilty and denied all allegations against him. 

The trial was repeatedly delayed, and eventually Paxton reached a deal with prosecutors in 2024 for him to pay $300,000 and participate in community service to avoid further proceedings. 

Paxton has called for a primary challenge against Cornyn in the next election but now seems like he may do it himself. The senior Texas senator was one of several Republicans in the state whom Paxton called to be challenged for not being conservative enough, Fox News reported. 

An aide for Paxton told The Hill that the attorney general will be traveling across the state to meet with donors and voters to understand how he can best serve Texas. 

The Hill has reached out to a spokesperson for Cornyn for comment. 

Texas Republicans said Paxton seems likely to enter the race in what could become a grudge match between two candidates representing opposing wings of the party. 

“If you go to the local county Republican Party meeting, there’s a belief loudly stated that [Cornyn] is not nearly conservative enough,” said GOP strategist Vinny Minchillo. “I think people have not forgiven him for making the deal some years ago on gun rights, which a lot of people thought it was a good deal, but at the grassroots level, people did not think it was a good deal.” 

But Cornyn may have some advantages that would place him as at least the early favorite in the race. 

Steinhauser said Cornyn’s campaign in 2014 “certainly heard” frustrations and criticism from some Republican primary voters, but he still easily won with 60 percent of the vote in a contested primary against then-Rep. Steve Stockman (R). 

He noted Cornyn’s comfortable victories in each of his past two elections, including in 2020, when Democrats had expressed some hopes of pulling off an upset. 

“He's never lost a race. He's never taken a vote for granted,” Steinhauser said. “His team has been with him a long time, and he's just one of these guys that's a hard worker, pretty smart, don't make too many mistakes.” 

Minchillo said Paxton hasn’t ever faced a close, contentious race throughout his career against an opponent with a lot of money and resources to “dump the [opposition] book on.” 

“He's a pretty target-rich environment, and I don't think Cornyn is afraid to shoot at those targets,” he said. 

But Paxton has overcome electoral adversity previously, having been elected as attorney general three times, most recently in 2022, when he faced a primary challenge from then-Land Commissioner George P. Bush (R), of the influential Bush family that dominated Texas politics for decades. 

He also overcome an attempt to oust him from office in 2023 when he was acquitted on 16 counts of impeachment resulting from allegations that he misused his office to benefit a real estate developer. His impeachment in the state House and trial in the state Senate were seen as another proxy battle within the party, with House Republicans overwhelmingly voting to impeach him and most Senate Republicans voting for his acquittal. 

Gov. Greg Abbott (R) and Lt. Gov. Dan Patrick (R) both stood by Paxton, while Cornyn expressed concerns over the accusations and pointed to Paxton’s other legal issues after he was acquitted.

Republican strategist Charlie Kolean said he believes the conservatives have the momentum in the battle over the party, helping to give Paxton a chance at topping Cornyn. He said Cornyn has been associated with the establishment while Paxton has positioned himself as a “disruptor” and close Trump ally. 

And if Cornyn makes a “mistake” on Trump’s agenda, Trump could be eager to endorse Paxton, he added. 

“You see the old Bush faction that has controlled Texas for a very, very long time, how much of a fight can they put up?” Kolean said. “And I don't think their statewide apparatus is nearly as strong as it used to be. I think they've been losing influence.” 

The establishment did gain a win last month with the election of state Rep. Dustin Burrows (R) as state House Speaker over a more right-wing opponent. But Burrows needed Democratic votes to clinch the Speakership, which Paxton had warned against. 

Kolean said Paxton would likely run on his strengths, like his aggressiveness in suing the Biden administration. He said he doesn’t expect attacks on Paxton’s conduct that resulted in the charges or the impeachment to be too effective, given that he has continued to win elections despite past attacks on that front. 

“Every time they've tried to attack on this stuff, it has not worked. He's still in office,” he said. 

Minchillo said the ultimate outcome could be based on how they decide to run their races and whom the electorate is focused on.

“If it becomes a referendum on Cornyn, that’s probably advantage Paxton. If it’s a referendum on Paxton, it’s advantage Cornyn,” he said.