Kansas City Chiefs vs Buffalo Bills odds, predictions and betting tips

Kansas City welcomes Buffalo to Arrowhead in the postseason once again as they aim to keep their hopes of pulling off the “three-peat” alive.

The Bills, led by MVP favourite Josh Allen, are looking for their first Super Bowl appearance since 1994.

Chiefs vs Bills best bets

History beckons in two weeks’ time if the home side can once again get past the Bills. No team in the NFL has ever won three straight titles and none of the previous back-to-back champs made it to the third Super Bowl either.

The Chiefs haven’t exactly blown teams away this season, but have consistently played fundamentally sound football that has gotten the job done in all but two of their games.

The Bills have caught the eye more, repeatedly scoring 30+ points and taking top scalps along the way, but they and Allen need it all to translate into a ring.

• Josh Allen anytime touchdown scorer – 20/21 with bet365
• James Cook over 56.5 rushing yards – 10/11 with bet365
• Travis Kelce over 69.5 receiving yards – 10/11 with bet365

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Kansas City Chiefs vs Buffalo Bills odds

Find the latest odds for Kansas City Chiefs vs Buffalo Bills courtesy of bet365. Odds are subject to change.

Chiefs vs Bills preview

This will be the ninth time Mahomes and Allen have faced each other, with four wins apiece so far. Mahomes, however, has come out on top in all three of their previous playoff clashes, including a dramatic victory in the divisional round three years ago which prompted the NFL to change overtime rules – allowing both teams to possess the ball. The Chiefs also brought an end to the Bills’ season a year ago, in a narrow 27-24 victory at Orchard Park.

The Bills have since gone at least some way to claiming revenge by ruining KC’s bid for an unbeaten season with a 30-21 win back in week 11 of the regular season. Allen sealed that one with a signature 26-yard rushing touchdown, which has been a feature of this Bills season.

The running game accounted for 32 touchdowns during the regular season, the highest among all 32 teams in the NFL. They’ve punched in a further four in their two playoff games so far too.
Some doubted whether the Western New York outfit would even make the postseason this time around after Allen was stripped of both Stefon Diggs and Gabe Davis in offseason trades and free agency – his two main wide receivers.

With an increasingly efficient ground game, however, and Josh Allen massively cutting down on turnovers – just six interceptions this season compared to 18 in 2023/24 – they have proved to be an extremely difficult offense to slow down. With the Miami Dolphins being beset by injuries and the New York Jets failing to deliver on their preseason hype, the Bills ended up winning the AFC East at a canter with a 13-4 record.

Ball security is a big reason why Allen has been able to put together a season which may land him the MVP award, as well as a very impressive statline of 4,130 passing yards and 30 touchdowns, along with 597 rushing yards and 14 TD carries. If the Bills are to finally bury their postseason hoodoo over the Chiefs, Allen will need to be at his best.

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The 2024/25 version of the Kansas City Chiefs has been much less explosive than in years past, claiming 11 of their 15 regular season wins by one score.

The defence has continued to play at an elite level, holding opponents to under 20 points on 11 occasions, and Mahomes has mastered the art of doing ‘just enough’ when it matters most in close games.

In fact, statistically, the regular season just finished was his worst by his own incredibly high standards. Below 4,000 passing yards for the first time in his career, no 60+ yard plays, and a joint-low 26 passing touchdowns. The only stat to have seen a slight uptick was his completion percentage – 67.5% representing a career-best.

As with any perennial championship contender though, the Chiefs seem to be clicking into gear at just the right time with two impressive wins against the Houston Texans – one in the final weeks of the regular season, the other in last week’s divisional round matchup – and a 29-10 dismantling of the Pittsburgh Steelers (another playoff team) on Christmas Day.

They never looked like surrendering the number 1 seed in the AFC, which they clinched with one game to spare. With Mahomes and many other starters being rested, the week 18 defeat in Denver, along with the aforementioned loss to Buffalo, are the only two blemishes on their 15-2 record.

Punters who’ve watched the NFL over the last five or so years will know to not rule out the “three-peat” until someone puts a stop to it.

Kansas City Chiefs vs Buffalo Bills betting tips

Whenever these two meet, it’s usually box office and the bookies are calling another very close game here, setting the spread at around 1.5 to 2 points in favour of Kansas City. It’s their seventh straight AFC Championship game, and they’ve won four of the previous six. So it’s fair to say they know how to perform in these situations – in fact, this is usually where they play their best football.

The Bills have only gotten this far once since losing the 1993 Super Bowl, that was four years ago and it was again the Chiefs who sent them home with a 38-24 victory. It will be much tighter this time. If the Bills can play the same brand of mistake-free football, they are the better team on paper and I have them finally eking one out over the Chiefs and going to the Super Bowl. Here are three bets I would take:

Josh Allen anytime touchdown scorer

Without Diggs and Davis, the Bills have operated a much more methodical offense this season – and Josh Allen’s size and speed are being leaned on even more, particularly in the red zone. You can safely assume they’ll be trying the QB sneak in 3rd-and-short and 4th-and-short scenarios all over the field, and when on the 1-yard line. This play has an incredibly high success rate, especially with a prototypical 6’5 quarterback pushing the pile.

Allen is also one of the most athletic signal callers in the NFL and can take off on designed QB run plays and scrambles. There’s every chance he calls his own number anywhere from 20 to 30 yards out and takes it to the end zone, as he did against the Chiefs earlier in the season.

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