If Nuclear War Breaks Out, Would Your City Survive?

During former President Joe Biden’s time in office, Seoul officials proclaimed that South Korea would not develop any nuclear weapons. However, amidst sudden geopolitical instability sparked in part by current U.S. President Donald Trump, South Korea seems to be reassessing its stance. The alliance between the United States and South Korea posits that the U.S. […] The post If Nuclear War Breaks Out, Would Your City Survive? appeared first on 24/7 Wall St..

Mar 17, 2025 - 16:11
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If Nuclear War Breaks Out, Would Your City Survive?

During former President Joe Biden’s time in office, Seoul officials proclaimed that South Korea would not develop any nuclear weapons. However, amidst sudden geopolitical instability sparked in part by current U.S. President Donald Trump, South Korea seems to be reassessing its stance. The alliance between the United States and South Korea posits that the U.S. would step in to protect South Korea against its nuclear-armed neighbor North Korea should the need arise. However, South Koreans are beginning to question whether the Trump administration would stand behind this promise. South Korea’s Foreign Minister Cho Tae-yul has acknowledged that his statement might be premature, but shared that nuclear weapons could be a “Plan B” for South Korea if the situation becomes any more tenuous. (Can you guess all the countries that have nuclear reactors?)

With increasing complex political turmoil happening across the globe, many people are concerned about what a nuclear war would look like — and how certain areas would survive (or not) if a nuclear strike occurred. Interested in whether you’d live through it, or it’s best to move elsewhere? Nukemap has the answers you’re searching for. This website allows users to visualize the effects of a nuclear detonation based on geographical location, warhead yield, and height of burst. Here, 24/7 Wall St. explored the potential impact of a nuclear strike on 22 of America’s largest, most populated cities — and the surrounding areas (in full called a Metro Statistical Area, or MSA). To understand the casualty count and how that might differ based on nuclear weapon size, we “detonated” both a 100-kiloton warhead — described as a W-76 found in U.S. and U.K. arsenals — and an 800-kiloton warhead similar to the Topol (SS-25) warheads currently held by Russia. The list is in ascending order based on population size, as sourced from the U.S. Census Bureau and 2023 American Community Survey.

This previously published article was updated on March 17, 2025 to reflect recent statements from South Korea and abroad regarding the development of nuclear weaponry. 

Why This Matters Today

Nuclear explosion with mushroom cloud on the background of crosses. Nuclear war threat concept

For most of us, nuclear war is terrifying — but has always been confined to media portrayals or books discussing what the fallout could look like. However, with the instability nearly every country has been seeing across the globe, the potential of nuclear war seems greater than ever. North Korea has been especially outspoken about its nuclear development; the country is developing a nuclear-powered submarine and says that it plans to strengthen its nuclear capabilities at a time when other world powers are calling for denuclearization. Should nuclear war happen, we want to visualize the scale of the impact on places familiar to us and highlight the dangers posed by nuclear weapons.

Here is how a nuclear attack would affect America’s largest cities:

Center City, Charlotte-Concord-Gastonia, NC-SC

  • Population: 2,805,115
  • Casualties from 100 kt detonation: 68,490 deaths, 108,490 injuries
  • Population within blast range of 102.3 sq. miles: 347,989 (12.5%)
  • Casualties from 800 kt detonation: 146,880 deaths, 279,030 injuries
  • Population within blast range of 409.3 sq. miles: 852,169 (30%)

Historic District, Baltimore-Columbia-Towson, MD

  • Population: 2,830,051
  • Casualties from 100 kt detonation: 140,730 deaths, 247,980 injuries
  • Population within blast range of 102.3 sq. miles: 739,488 (31%)
  • Casualties from 800 kt detonation: 313,370 deaths, 522,010 injuries
  • Population within blast range of 409.3 sq. miles: 1.5 million (63%)

Downtown, St. Louis, MO-IL

  • Population: 2,796,999
  • Casualties from 100 kt detonation: 63,050 deaths, 124,530 injuries
  • Population within blast range of 102.3 sq. miles: 378,534 (13.5%)
  • Casualties from 800 kt detonation: 159,820 deaths, 320,680 injuries
  • Population within blast range of 409.3 sq. miles: 978,691 (35%)

Capitol Hill, Denver-Aurora-Lakewood, CO

  • Population: 3,005,131
  • Casualties from 100 kt detonation: 113,760 deaths, 209,240 injuries
  • Population within blast range of 102.3 sq. miles: 627,216 (21%)
  • Casualties from 800 kt detonation: 269,820 deaths, 540,620 injuries
  • Population within blast range of 409.3 sq. miles: 1.7 million (56.5%)

Tampa Downtown, Tampa-St. Petersburg-Clearwater, FL

  • Population: 3,342,963
  • Casualties from 100 kt detonation: 55,960 deaths, 110,320 injuries
  • Population within blast range of 102.3 sq. miles: 342,282 (10%)
  • Casualties from 800 kt detonation: 138,770 deaths, 294,970 injuries
  • Population within blast range of 409.3 sq. miles: 891,404 (26.6%)

Core, San Diego-Chula Vista-Carlsbad, CA

  • Population: 3,269,973
  • Casualties from 100 kt detonation: 88,100 deaths, 206,740 injuries
  • Population within blast range of 102.3 sq. miles: 629,171 (19%)
  • Casualties from 800 kt detonation: 250,540 deaths, 495,530 injuries
  • Population within blast range of 409.3 sq. miles: 1.5 million (46%)

Downtown West, Minneapolis-St. Paul-Bloomington, MN-WI

  • Population: 3,710,000
  • Casualties from 100 kt detonation: 145,590 deaths, 220,450 injuries
  • Population within blast range of 102.3 sq. miles: 675,421 (18%)
  • Casualties from 800 kt detonation: 288,030 deaths, 537,220 injuries
  • Population within blast range of 409.3 sq. miles: 1.6 million (43%)

Downtown Seattle, Seattle-Tacoma-Bellevue, WA

  • Population: 4,044,837
  • Casualties from 100 kt detonation: 130,440 deaths, 181,260 injuries
  • Population within blast range of 102.3 sq. miles: 560,743 (14%)
  • Casualties from 800 kt detonation: 261,270 deaths, 420,810 injuries
  • Population within blast range of 409.3 sq. miles: 1.3 million (32%)

Downtown Detroit, Detroit-Warren-Dearborn, MI

  • Population: 4,340,384
  • Casualties from 100 kt detonation: 89,020 deaths, 181,160 injuries
  • Population within blast range of 102.3 sq. miles: 549,298 (13%)
  • Casualties from 800 kt detonation: 218,290 deaths, 489,470 injuries
  • Population within blast range of 409.3 sq. miles: 1.5 million (34.5%)

Magnolia Center, Riverside-San Bernardino-Ontario, CA

  • Population: 4,704,354
  • Casualties from 100 kt detonation: 40,410 deaths, 115,390 injuries
  • Population within blast range of 102.3 sq. miles: 344,217 (7%)
  • Casualties from 800 kt detonation: 126,940 deaths, 354,960 injuries
  • Population within blast range of 409.3 sq. miles: 1.1 million (23.4%)

Mission District, San Francisco-Oakland-Berkeley, CA

  • Population: 4,566,961
  • Casualties from 100 kt detonation: 176,180 deaths, 392,400 injuries
  • Population within blast range of 102.3 sq. miles: 985,716 (21.6%)
  • Casualties from 800 kt detonation: 487,210 deaths, 534,470 injuries
  • Population within blast range of 409.3 sq. miles: 1.6 million (35%)

Beacon Hill, Boston-Cambridge-Newton, MA-NH

  • Population: 4,920,000
  • Casualties from 100 kt detonation: 261,610 deaths, 424,160 injuries
  • Population within blast range of 102.3 sq. miles: 1.2 million (24.3%)
  • Casualties from 800 kt detonation: 569,630 deaths, 708,080 injuries
  • Population within blast range of 409.3 sq. miles: 2.1 million (43%)

Central City, Phoenix-Mesa-Chandler, AZ

  • Population: 5,070,011
  • Casualties from 100 kt detonation: 66,930 deaths, 174,490 injuries
  • Population within blast range of 102.3 sq. miles: 552,746 (11%)
  • Casualties from 800 kt detonation: 193,210 deaths, 516,190 injuries
  • Population within blast range of 409.3 sq. miles: 1.6 million (31.5%)

Georgia State Capitol, Atlanta-Sandy Springs-Alpharetta, GA

  • Population: 6,307,261
  • Casualties from 100 kt detonation: 102,380 deaths, 163,780 injuries
  • Population within blast range of 102.3 sq. miles: 491,158 (7.7%)
  • Casualties from 800 kt detonation: 218,450 deaths, 403,460 injuries
  • Population within blast range of 409.3 sq. miles: 1.2 million (19%)

Center City, Philadelphia-Camden-Wilmington, PA-NJ-DE-MD

  • Population: 6,250,000
  • Casualties from 100 kt detonation: 241,270 deaths, 392,350 injuries
  • Population within blast range of 102.3 sq. miles: 1.2 million (19%)
  • Casualties from 800 kt detonation: 518,820 deaths, 836,230 injuries
  • Population within blast range of 409.3 sq. miles: 2.5 million (40%)

Downtown Miami, Miami-Fort Lauderdale-Pompano Beach, FL

  • Population: 6,265,500
  • Casualties from 100 kt detonation: 91,260 deaths, 185,890 injuries
  • Population within blast range of 102.3 sq. miles: 558,871 (9%)
  • Casualties from 800 kt detonation: 227,670 deaths, 481,990 injuries
  • Population within blast range of 409.3 sq. miles: 1.5 million (24%)

White House, Washington-Arlington-Alexandria, DC-VA-MD-WV

  • Population: 6,304,975
  • Casualties from 100 kt detonation: 233,810 deaths, 383,110 injuries
  • Population within blast range of 102.3 sq. miles: 1.1 million (17.4%)
  • Casualties from 800 kt detonation: 510,110 deaths, 837,240 injuries
  • Population within blast range of 409.3 sq. miles: 2.5 million (40%)

Downtown Houston, Houston-The Woodlands-Sugar Land, TX

  • Population: 7,510,253
  • Casualties from 100 kt detonation: 123,380 deaths, 228,280 injuries
  • Population within blast range of 102.3 sq. miles: 723,217 (10%)
  • Casualties from 800 kt detonation: 298,880 deaths, 619,920 injuries
  • Population within blast range of 409.3 sq. miles: 1.9 million (25.3%)

Downtown Dallas, Dallas-Fort Worth-Arlington, TX

  • Population: 8,100,000
  • Casualties from 100 kt detonation: 87,590 deaths, 185,740 injuries
  • Population within blast range of 102.3 sq. miles: 547,875 (7%)
  • Casualties from 800 kt detonation: 220,500 deaths, 514,260 injuries
  • Population within blast range of 409.3 sq. miles: 1.6 million (19%)

Chicago Loop, Chicago-Naperville-Elgin, IL-IN-WI

The Chicago River and downtown Chicago skyline USA
  • Population: 9,262,825
  • Casualties from 100 kt detonation: 324,080 deaths, 391,670 injuries
  • Population within blast range of 102.3 sq. miles: 1.3 million (14%)
  • Casualties from 800 kt detonation: 612,010 deaths, 951,550 injuries
  • Population within blast range of 409.3 sq. miles: 3.0 million (32%)

Financial District, Los Angeles-Long Beach-Anaheim, CA

JANUARY 20, 2019, LOS ANGELES, CA, USA - Pasadena Freeway (Arroyo Seco Parkway) CA 110 leads to downtown Los Angeles in morning light
  • Population: 12,543,000
  • Casualties from 100 kt detonation: 195,770 deaths, 510,880 injuries
  • Population within blast range of 102.3 sq. miles: 1.5 million (12%)
  • Casualties from 800 kt detonation: 582,880 deaths, 1.5 million injuries
  • Population within blast range of 409.3 sq. miles: 4.4 million (35%)

Manhattan, Soho, New York-Newark-Jersey City, NY-NJ-PA Metro Area

New York City skyline at dusk with reflections of Billionaires Row supertall skyscrapers in Central Park Reservoir. Evening view of illuminated luxury towers in Midtown Manhattan
  • Population: 19,726,871
  • Casualties from 100 kt detonation: 583,160 deaths, 1.3 million injuries
  • Population within blast range of 102.3 sq. miles: 3.8 million (19.2%)
  • Casualties from 800 kt detonation: 1.6 million deaths, 2.9 million injuries
  • Population within blast range of 409.3 sq. miles: 8.6 million (44%)

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