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Comments on January Employment Report
The headline jobs number in the January employment report was below expectations, however, November and December payrolls were revised up by 100,000 combined. The participation rate and the employment population ratio increased, and the unemployment rate decreased to 4.0%.Earlier: January Employment Report: 143 thousand Jobs, 4.0% Unemployment Rate Prime (25 to 54 Years Old) Participation Since the overall participation rate is impacted by both cyclical (recession) and demographic (aging population, younger people staying in school) reasons, here is the employment-population ratio for the key working age group: 25 to 54 years old. The 25 to 54 years old participation rate decreased in January at 83.5% from 83.4% in December.The 25 to 54 employment population ratio increased to 80.7% from 80.5% the previous month.Both are down from the recent peaks, but still near the highest level this millennium. Average Hourly Wages The graph shows the nominal year-over-year change in "Average Hourly Earnings" for all private employees from the Current Employment Statistics (CES). There was a huge increase at the beginning of the pandemic as lower paid employees were let go, and then the pandemic related spike reversed a year later. Wage growth has trended down after peaking at 5.9% YoY in March 2022 and was at 4.1% YoY in January. Part Time for Economic Reasons From the BLS report: "The number of people employed part time for economic reasons, at 4.5 million, changed little in January. These individuals would have preferred full-time employment but were working part time because their hours had been reduced or they were unable to find full-time jobs."The number of persons working part time for economic reasons increased in January to 4.48 million from 4.36 million in December. This is close to the pre-pandemic levels. These workers are included in the alternate measure of labor underutilization (U-6) that was unchanged at 7.5% from 7.5% in the previous month. This is down from the record high in April 2020 of 22.9% and up from the lowest level on record (seasonally adjusted) in December 2022 (6.6%). (This series started in 1994). This measure is above the 7.0% level in February 2020 (pre-pandemic). Unemployed over 26 Weeks This graph shows the number of workers unemployed for 27 weeks or more. According to the BLS, there are 1.44 million workers who have been unemployed for more than 26 weeks and still want a job, down from 1.51 million the previous month.This is down from post-pandemic high of 4.171 million, and up from the recent low of 1.056 million. This is above pre-pandemic levels. Job StreakThrough January 2025, the employment report indicated positive job growth for 49 consecutive months, putting the current streak in 2nd place of the longest job streaks in US history (since 1939). This streak survived the annual benchmark revision. Headline Jobs, Top 10 Streaks Year EndedStreak, Months 12020113 2N/A491 3199048 4200746 5197945 6 tie194333 6 tie198633 6 tie200033 9196729 10199525 1Currrent Streak Summary: The headline jobs number in the January employment report was below expectations, however, November and December payrolls were revised up by 100,000 combined. The participation rate and the employment population ratio increased, and the unemployment rate decreased to 4.0%.Another decent employment report.
The headline jobs number in the January employment report was below expectations, however, November and December payrolls were revised up by 100,000 combined. The participation rate and the employment population ratio increased, and the unemployment rate decreased to 4.0%.
Prime (25 to 54 Years Old) Participation
Since the overall participation rate is impacted by both cyclical (recession) and demographic (aging population, younger people staying in school) reasons, here is the employment-population ratio for the key working age group: 25 to 54 years old.
The 25 to 54 years old participation rate decreased in January at 83.5% from 83.4% in December.
Part Time for Economic Reasons
From the BLS report:
These workers are included in the alternate measure of labor underutilization (U-6) that was unchanged at 7.5% from 7.5% in the previous month. This is down from the record high in April 2020 of 22.9% and up from the lowest level on record (seasonally adjusted) in December 2022 (6.6%). (This series started in 1994). This measure is above the 7.0% level in February 2020 (pre-pandemic).
Unemployed over 26 Weeks
This graph shows the number of workers unemployed for 27 weeks or more.
According to the BLS, there are 1.44 million workers who have been unemployed for more than 26 weeks and still want a job, down from 1.51 million the previous month.
Prime (25 to 54 Years Old) Participation
Since the overall participation rate is impacted by both cyclical (recession) and demographic (aging population, younger people staying in school) reasons, here is the employment-population ratio for the key working age group: 25 to 54 years old.The 25 to 54 years old participation rate decreased in January at 83.5% from 83.4% in December.
The 25 to 54 employment population ratio increased to 80.7% from 80.5% the previous month.
Both are down from the recent peaks, but still near the highest level this millennium.
Average Hourly Wages
The graph shows the nominal year-over-year change in "Average Hourly Earnings" for all private employees from the Current Employment Statistics (CES).
Average Hourly Wages
The graph shows the nominal year-over-year change in "Average Hourly Earnings" for all private employees from the Current Employment Statistics (CES). There was a huge increase at the beginning of the pandemic as lower paid employees were let go, and then the pandemic related spike reversed a year later.
Wage growth has trended down after peaking at 5.9% YoY in March 2022 and was at 4.1% YoY in January.
Wage growth has trended down after peaking at 5.9% YoY in March 2022 and was at 4.1% YoY in January.
Part Time for Economic Reasons
From the BLS report:"The number of people employed part time for economic reasons, at 4.5 million, changed little in January. These individuals would have preferred full-time employment but were working part time because their hours had been reduced or they were unable to find full-time jobs."The number of persons working part time for economic reasons increased in January to 4.48 million from 4.36 million in December. This is close to the pre-pandemic levels.
These workers are included in the alternate measure of labor underutilization (U-6) that was unchanged at 7.5% from 7.5% in the previous month. This is down from the record high in April 2020 of 22.9% and up from the lowest level on record (seasonally adjusted) in December 2022 (6.6%). (This series started in 1994). This measure is above the 7.0% level in February 2020 (pre-pandemic).
Unemployed over 26 Weeks
This graph shows the number of workers unemployed for 27 weeks or more. According to the BLS, there are 1.44 million workers who have been unemployed for more than 26 weeks and still want a job, down from 1.51 million the previous month.
This is down from post-pandemic high of 4.171 million, and up from the recent low of 1.056 million.
This is above pre-pandemic levels.
Job Streak
Summary:
The headline jobs number in the January employment report was below expectations, however, November and December payrolls were revised up by 100,000 combined. The participation rate and the employment population ratio increased, and the unemployment rate decreased to 4.0%.
This is above pre-pandemic levels.
Job Streak
Through January 2025, the employment report indicated positive job growth for 49 consecutive months, putting the current streak in 2nd place of the longest job streaks in US history (since 1939). This streak survived the annual benchmark revision.
| Headline Jobs, Top 10 Streaks | ||
|---|---|---|
| Year Ended | Streak, Months | |
| 1 | 2020 | 113 |
| 2 | N/A | 491 |
| 3 | 1990 | 48 |
| 4 | 2007 | 46 |
| 5 | 1979 | 45 |
| 6 tie | 1943 | 33 |
| 6 tie | 1986 | 33 |
| 6 tie | 2000 | 33 |
| 9 | 1967 | 29 |
| 10 | 1995 | 25 |
| 1Currrent Streak | ||
Summary:
The headline jobs number in the January employment report was below expectations, however, November and December payrolls were revised up by 100,000 combined. The participation rate and the employment population ratio increased, and the unemployment rate decreased to 4.0%.
Another decent employment report.
