Chiefs offense vs. Eagles defense Super Bowl 2025 breakdown and things to watch for
Photo by Ryan Kang/Getty Images Let’s break down the film on the Chiefs’ offense vs. the Eagles defense. This Super Bowl is going to be fun: an Eagles defense that wants you to take your time and eat your vegetables against a Kansas City offense that’s got so much fiber in them they could stop up the Hoover Dam if it broke. The Chiefs don’t need to be explosive to win games; at this point they might not want to be explosive. But Kansas City’s Super Bowl LIX showdown with Philadelphia is their biggest test yet. The biggest thing to watch for when Kansas City has the ball is the personnel matching. The Chiefs play the second-highest percentage of 12 personnel in the NFL at 33.9 percent per Sumer Sports, but they also have a top ten EPA per play when using 12 personnel. This is the Chiefs’ new era of their offensive brilliance: eschewing 11 personnel and super spread offense by just continuing to add tight ends onto the field like infinity stones, until the defense matches their personnel with base defense. That’s when the Chiefs win the battle, because if teams want to play nickel against their 12 personnel, they’ll just run the ball at them for five yards a pop, matriculating the ball downfield in what many consider to be painstaking to watch. However, if teams load up against the run and put all their linebackers on the field, Kansas City can crush teams with their tight ends and horizontal speed. A tough place to find yourself in. In the AFC Championship game, the Bills played a majority of their snaps in nickel (which is their M.O.: live by nickel, die by nickel). They were actually able to slow Kansas City’s run game down a little bit, but with CB Christian Benford going out, the Chiefs buzz-sawed them to an absurd 68 percent Success Rate on all passing plays. However, I think Kansas City pulled out some real neat stuff with Mahomes’ legs and his threat to take off and run. I first noticed some of the double sidecar stuff they were doing with TEs Travis Kelce and Noah Gray in their win over the Houston Texans in the divisional round, with this play action pass that helped pry Kelce open. View post on imgur.com Now in the AFC title game, the Chiefs used the full house/double sidecar stuff to throw off the Bills’ fast-flowing run defense, and they got a touchdown building off these two concepts. The first one was this pretty sick touchdown using GT Counter read option, where the guard and tackle pull on a counter play, but both tight ends go the opposite way. It leaves the linebackers looking at so many different things at once, and RB Kareem Hunt is able to get into the end zone. View post on imgur.com Then, later in the game they pull out the same formation and the same look, but Mahomes pulls it and scores a touchdown. This is a perfect example of how to build concepts and looks off of each other, and something Andy Reid and the Chiefs offensive braintrust does really well. View post on imgur.com The Eagles are another challenge for Kansas City because they want to live in nickel and have the bodies/quality of players to do so. If you want to defend the run out of light boxes and play smaller looks when teams run the ball at you, you need to have a monstrous defensive line. Philadelphia is seventh in the entire NFL in EPA per carry when they have five DBs on the field, and they’re able to live like that because of their defensive line. It turns out pouring picks and money into your defensive front actually pays off when matched with a quality defensive coordinator, a shocker I know. With DTs Jalen Carter, Jordan Davis and Milton Williams up front and LB Zack Baun behind them, they can play these light boxes and get away with it, because they occupy gaps and spaces so well. Look at this rep against Green Bay, when the Packers are trying to run between the tackles. Because DT Jordan Davis does such a good job of holding up the double team long enough for Baun to get into the gap, it forces a cutback, flowing all the way to CB Quinyon Mitchell, who is a willing tackler. View post on imgur.com What they’ll also do is walk Baun down to the edge, creating a five-man surface without losing any personnel matchups they really like. This is normally done when they’re facing 11 personnel under center looks, like what the Rams and Packers did to them, but getting hands on TE Travis Kelce at the line of scrimmage in the passing game. View post on imgur.com Where I think this game will turn on its’ head is when the Eagles play man coverage against the Chiefs. While Kansas City doesn’t exactly have the most fearsome receiver group in the league, QB Patrick Mahomes still has a 50% Success Rate against man, sixth-highest in the NFL. In the last Super Bowl these two teams played against each other, Mahomes had 11 dropbacks against man coverage (mainly Cover 1, because Fangio teams major in Cover 1 as their man coverage). On those 11 dropbacks, he went 7/9 for 69 yards and a touc
Let’s break down the film on the Chiefs’ offense vs. the Eagles defense.
This Super Bowl is going to be fun: an Eagles defense that wants you to take your time and eat your vegetables against a Kansas City offense that’s got so much fiber in them they could stop up the Hoover Dam if it broke.
The Chiefs don’t need to be explosive to win games; at this point they might not want to be explosive. But Kansas City’s Super Bowl LIX showdown with Philadelphia is their biggest test yet.
The biggest thing to watch for when Kansas City has the ball is the personnel matching. The Chiefs play the second-highest percentage of 12 personnel in the NFL at 33.9 percent per Sumer Sports, but they also have a top ten EPA per play when using 12 personnel. This is the Chiefs’ new era of their offensive brilliance: eschewing 11 personnel and super spread offense by just continuing to add tight ends onto the field like infinity stones, until the defense matches their personnel with base defense. That’s when the Chiefs win the battle, because if teams want to play nickel against their 12 personnel, they’ll just run the ball at them for five yards a pop, matriculating the ball downfield in what many consider to be painstaking to watch. However, if teams load up against the run and put all their linebackers on the field, Kansas City can crush teams with their tight ends and horizontal speed. A tough place to find yourself in.
In the AFC Championship game, the Bills played a majority of their snaps in nickel (which is their M.O.: live by nickel, die by nickel). They were actually able to slow Kansas City’s run game down a little bit, but with CB Christian Benford going out, the Chiefs buzz-sawed them to an absurd 68 percent Success Rate on all passing plays. However, I think Kansas City pulled out some real neat stuff with Mahomes’ legs and his threat to take off and run. I first noticed some of the double sidecar stuff they were doing with TEs Travis Kelce and Noah Gray in their win over the Houston Texans in the divisional round, with this play action pass that helped pry Kelce open.
Now in the AFC title game, the Chiefs used the full house/double sidecar stuff to throw off the Bills’ fast-flowing run defense, and they got a touchdown building off these two concepts. The first one was this pretty sick touchdown using GT Counter read option, where the guard and tackle pull on a counter play, but both tight ends go the opposite way. It leaves the linebackers looking at so many different things at once, and RB Kareem Hunt is able to get into the end zone.
Then, later in the game they pull out the same formation and the same look, but Mahomes pulls it and scores a touchdown. This is a perfect example of how to build concepts and looks off of each other, and something Andy Reid and the Chiefs offensive braintrust does really well.
The Eagles are another challenge for Kansas City because they want to live in nickel and have the bodies/quality of players to do so. If you want to defend the run out of light boxes and play smaller looks when teams run the ball at you, you need to have a monstrous defensive line. Philadelphia is seventh in the entire NFL in EPA per carry when they have five DBs on the field, and they’re able to live like that because of their defensive line.
It turns out pouring picks and money into your defensive front actually pays off when matched with a quality defensive coordinator, a shocker I know. With DTs Jalen Carter, Jordan Davis and Milton Williams up front and LB Zack Baun behind them, they can play these light boxes and get away with it, because they occupy gaps and spaces so well. Look at this rep against Green Bay, when the Packers are trying to run between the tackles. Because DT Jordan Davis does such a good job of holding up the double team long enough for Baun to get into the gap, it forces a cutback, flowing all the way to CB Quinyon Mitchell, who is a willing tackler.
What they’ll also do is walk Baun down to the edge, creating a five-man surface without losing any personnel matchups they really like. This is normally done when they’re facing 11 personnel under center looks, like what the Rams and Packers did to them, but getting hands on TE Travis Kelce at the line of scrimmage in the passing game.
Where I think this game will turn on its’ head is when the Eagles play man coverage against the Chiefs. While Kansas City doesn’t exactly have the most fearsome receiver group in the league, QB Patrick Mahomes still has a 50% Success Rate against man, sixth-highest in the NFL. In the last Super Bowl these two teams played against each other, Mahomes had 11 dropbacks against man coverage (mainly Cover 1, because Fangio teams major in Cover 1 as their man coverage). On those 11 dropbacks, he went 7/9 for 69 yards and a touchdown. Even in their matchup the next year in the regular season that Philly won, Mahomes went 8/15 for 55 yards and a touchdown against man coverage. Mahomes scrambles also popped in the Super Bowl; two of his three scrambles went for first downs.
However, this Eagles’ secondary and linebacker group is much different than the last time. The question is if the Eagles try to play man coverage knowing that the Chiefs have a rolodex of man coverage beaters that they’ve been unleashing against teams this entire season.
