AIA: Architecture Billings "End the year on a weak note"
Note: This index is a leading indicator primarily for new Commercial Real Estate (CRE) investment. From the AIA: ABI December 2024: Business conditions end the year on a weak noteThe AIA/Deltek Architecture Billings Index (ABI) score fell to 44.1 for the month as the share of firms reporting a decline in firm billings increased. Firm billings have now decreased for the majority of firms every month except two since October 2022. While not a full-fledged recession, this period of softness and uncertainty has been challenging for many firms. And prospects for future work remain soft as well. Although inquiries into new projects continued to increase at a relatively slow rate, the value of newly signed design contracts decreased further in December as clients remained hesitant to commit to new work. In one brighter spot, backlogs at firms remained steady and strong at 6.5 months in December, so many firms still have work in the pipeline for now. Despite overall softness in billings, firms located in the West reported growth for the third consecutive month in December. But business conditions remained soft for firms in all other regions, particularly at firms located in the Northeast, which were the first to report slight growth earlier in the year. Billings also declined at firms of all specializations in December, although firms with an institutional sector are on the cusp of growth and have been for several months. However, business conditions softened further for both firms with multifamily residential and commercial/industrial specializations this month, ending the year on a down note. ... The ABI score is a leading economic indicator of construction activity, providing an approximately nine-to-twelve-month glimpse into the future of nonresidential construction spending activity. The score is derived from a monthly survey of architecture firms that measures the change in the number of services provided to clients. emphasis added• Northeast (41.7); Midwest (46.4); South (47.2); West (52.2) • Sector index breakdown: commercial/industrial (44.1); institutional (49.8); multifamily residential (46.5) Click on graph for larger image. This graph shows the Architecture Billings Index since 1996. The index was at 44.1 in November, down from 49.7 in November. Anything below 50 indicates a decrease in demand for architects' services.This index has indicated contraction for 25 of the last 27 months. Note: This includes commercial and industrial facilities like hotels and office buildings, multi-family residential, as well as schools, hospitals and other institutions. This index usually leads CRE investment by 9 to 12 months, so this index suggests a slowdown in CRE investment in 2025.In November, we saw the first positive score for multi-family since 2022. However, multi-family billings turned negative again in December and has been negative for 28 of the last 29 months. This suggests we will see further weakness in multi-family starts.
Note: This index is a leading indicator primarily for new Commercial Real Estate (CRE) investment.
From the AIA: ABI December 2024: Business conditions end the year on a weak note
• Sector index breakdown: commercial/industrial (44.1); institutional (49.8); multifamily residential (46.5)
Click on graph for larger image.
This graph shows the Architecture Billings Index since 1996. The index was at 44.1 in November, down from 49.7 in November. Anything below 50 indicates a decrease in demand for architects' services.
From the AIA: ABI December 2024: Business conditions end the year on a weak note
The AIA/Deltek Architecture Billings Index (ABI) score fell to 44.1 for the month as the share of firms reporting a decline in firm billings increased. Firm billings have now decreased for the majority of firms every month except two since October 2022. While not a full-fledged recession, this period of softness and uncertainty has been challenging for many firms. And prospects for future work remain soft as well. Although inquiries into new projects continued to increase at a relatively slow rate, the value of newly signed design contracts decreased further in December as clients remained hesitant to commit to new work. In one brighter spot, backlogs at firms remained steady and strong at 6.5 months in December, so many firms still have work in the pipeline for now.• Northeast (41.7); Midwest (46.4); South (47.2); West (52.2)
Despite overall softness in billings, firms located in the West reported growth for the third consecutive month in December. But business conditions remained soft for firms in all other regions, particularly at firms located in the Northeast, which were the first to report slight growth earlier in the year. Billings also declined at firms of all specializations in December, although firms with an institutional sector are on the cusp of growth and have been for several months. However, business conditions softened further for both firms with multifamily residential and commercial/industrial specializations this month, ending the year on a down note.
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The ABI score is a leading economic indicator of construction activity, providing an approximately nine-to-twelve-month glimpse into the future of nonresidential construction spending activity. The score is derived from a monthly survey of architecture firms that measures the change in the number of services provided to clients.
emphasis added
• Sector index breakdown: commercial/industrial (44.1); institutional (49.8); multifamily residential (46.5)
Click on graph for larger image.This graph shows the Architecture Billings Index since 1996. The index was at 44.1 in November, down from 49.7 in November. Anything below 50 indicates a decrease in demand for architects' services.
This index has indicated contraction for 25 of the last 27 months.
Note: This includes commercial and industrial facilities like hotels and office buildings, multi-family residential, as well as schools, hospitals and other institutions.
This index usually leads CRE investment by 9 to 12 months, so this index suggests a slowdown in CRE investment in 2025.
Note: This includes commercial and industrial facilities like hotels and office buildings, multi-family residential, as well as schools, hospitals and other institutions.
This index usually leads CRE investment by 9 to 12 months, so this index suggests a slowdown in CRE investment in 2025.
In November, we saw the first positive score for multi-family since 2022. However, multi-family billings turned negative again in December and has been negative for 28 of the last 29 months. This suggests we will see further weakness in multi-family starts.
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