ADP jobs report suggests little tariff impact on private-sector hiring

The U.S. economy saw solid private-sector job creation last month, suggesting that tariff uncertainty and the Doge-led overhaul of the federal workforce have yet to weigh heavily on the overall labor market.

Payroll-processing group ADP said Wednesday that around 155,000 jobs were created in the private sector last month, up 35% from the upwardly revised tally of 115,000 in February. Economists had expected ADP's National Employment Report to show gains of around 118,000 as hiring steadied into the end of the first quarter.

Investors are also likely to focus on wage and earnings details provided in the ADP release, which showed a slowing year-on-year increase of 4.6% for so-called job stayers. Those seeking new roles saw pay gains of 6.5%, the lowest wage premium for changing jobs in more than three years.

“Despite policy uncertainty and downbeat consumers, the bottom line is this: The March top-line number was a good one for the economy and employers of all sizes, if not necessarily all sectors,” said ADP's chief economist, Nela Richardson.

Stock futures were little changed in the wake of the ADP release, with the S&P 500 called 52 points lower and the Nasdaq set for an 225-point decline at the start of trading. The Dow Jones Industrial Average is priced for a 300-point pullback.

Related: There's no need for a trade war; America's already won it. By a lot.

Benchmark 10-year Treasury note yields held steady at 4.146% following the release, while 2-year notes were last pegged at 3.865% following their biggest two-day pullback of the year.

The U.S. dollar index, which tracks the greenback against a basket of six global currencies, was marked 0.17% lower 104.084.

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• Retail sales add new complication to Fed rate cut forecasts\\\CME Group's 

CME Group's FedWatch pegs the odds of May rate cut at just 16.5%, but forecasts the first reduction of the year in June, with a follow-on move in September. 

The Labor Department will publish its benchmark March nonfarm-payrolls report Friday. Investors are looking for a hiring gain of around 139,000, down from February's 151,000 tally, with the headline unemployment rate holding at 4.1%.