Three keys to a Chiefs Super Bowl LIX victory: Will supporting cast step up?

The Kansas City Chiefs are back on the Super Bowl stage. It feels like they never left. Patrick Mahomes & Co. have gotten pretty comfortable atop the league, and now the back-to-back champs are looking to make history with a never-before-done third straight Super Bowl victory.

The Philadelphia Eagles are back, too. After losing to the Chiefs in Super Bowl LVII two years ago and getting in their own way down the stretch last season, Philadelphia has retooled, revived its status atop the NFC, and looks ready for a rematch.

The last time these clubs met under football’s brightest lights, fans were treated to a high-scoring shootout featuring the NFL’s top two offences. With a combined 73 points scored between them, the matchup ranks third among the highest-scoring Super Bowls ever.

Will Sunday’s script tell a similar story? Not if Kansas City can help it. Mahomes remains the greatest offensive threat every time he steps onto the football field, but the 2024 Chiefs — like the team that defended its Super Bowl title last year against the San Francisco 49ers — are no longer built for scoring sprees. They’ve won all year with defence-driven, detail-oriented outcomes, separated from their opponent by a single score more often than not.

All those tightly contested matchups have Kansas City looking vulnerable, but it’s also the reason they’re simply unstoppable in the biggest moments. These Chiefs know how to win, how to do just enough to wear down opponents and strike with precision — not a sledgehammer — when it matters most.

With all that in mind, we’ve identified three keys to victory for the Chiefs in Super Bowl LIX.

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Slow down Saquon Barkley

Easier said than done, obviously — just ask Philly’s opponents this year. In 19 matchups this season, including playoffs, Barkley hit triple-digit yardage 14 times, including six in which he tallied 150 or more.

As a follow-up to his first regular season in green, which saw Barkley trounce his previous personal bests and become just the ninth player in NFL history to hit 2,000 yards on a season while finishing just 100 shy of Eric Dickerson’s single-season record, Barkley’s been a force in the playoffs.

Historically so. Thirty yards on Sunday — he doubled that on the Eagles’ first snap in the NFC Championship against the Washington Commanders two weeks ago — would give him the greatest single season, including playoffs, of any running back, ever.

As deep and as talented and as multi-faceted as the Eagles’ offence is this year, the gameplan runs through its star running back. And while Barkley’s season has been defined by highlight-reel runs that can break a game wide open, he’s also capable of breaking opposing defences down in this run-heavy offence.

The Chiefs’ defence put up respectable numbers against the run this year, the unit ranking eighth against opposing ground games in the regular season and allowing 100-plus rushing yards just six times (we’re not including Week 18 when they rested their starters). But of their five worst defensive showings against the run, four occurred in December or January. They allowed 149 and 147 yards, respectively, against the Houston Texans and Buffalo Bills in the playoffs. They bent, but they didn’t break.

Defensive coordinator Steve Spagnuolo is particularly strong at scheming against the run. In 18 playoff games since he joined the Chiefs in 2019, he’s never allowed an individual player to rush for 100 yards against his defence.

If the Chiefs can interrupt Barkley’s flow, it could force the ball into Jalen Hurts’ hands more — and while he’s a dangerous runner himself, particularly in red zone situations, upping his pass count and challenging his often-questioned chemistry with top receivers like A.J. Brown, leads to more opportunities for mistakes on which Kansas City’s smart secondary can capitalize.

Get the supporting cast involved

We saw it against the Commanders in the NFC Championship, and we saw it in just about every game that came before it: The 2024 Eagles defence is incredibly good at limiting opponents’ explosive plays.

That suits the Chiefs’ offence just fine. This is a unit that used to feast on chunk plays, but now Mahomes’ game has evolved into one that features more short routes, a heavier reliance on the run game and yards after catch, and turning each drive into a systematic series of defence-draining gains.

The Chiefs posted the fifth fewest completions of 20-plus yards and the second fewest of 40-plus yards. Their longest play of the season was 54 yards. This is not an explosive offence, but it’s incredibly effective thanks to Mahomes’ mistake-free football and ability to thrive off-script when needed. (This all sounds like one big backhanded compliment, but it’s been a highly effective recipe for success all season!)

The lack of down-field threat for much of the season puts extra pressure on Mahomes to distribute the ball widely. Tight end Travis Kelce has made a career out of clutch playoff catches in major moments and is Kansas City’s YAC king — but defeating Philly’s offence is not a two-person job.

After getting lacklustre production from their wide receivers against Houston earlier this month, the Chiefs’ AFC Championship win over Buffalo was all hands on deck. Eight different players caught at least one pass in that game, including four wide receivers. Xavier Worthy led the way with six catches for 84 yards. A splash play from the speedy rookie early against the Eagles could set the tone and keep Philly on its toes.

Stifle the tush push

Two years after making its Super Bowl debut, the Tush Push is still going strong. For so simple a play, it remains incredibly hard to stop — and yet, the Chiefs did stop it against the Bills in the AFC Championship on multiple occasions. It was among some of the main reasons they emerged victorious, denying Allen — the only other quarterback able to successfully and consistently capitalize on the play in 2024 — an inch in both crucial scoring and first-down situations.

The question now becomes whether they can crack the code on the Philly original. Hurts is still the king when it comes to Tush Push scoring situations — according to an excellent deep dive on the play published in The Ringer, Hurts registered 13 TDs on QB sneaks this season. In that same article, the Chiefs ranked second last in Tush Push defence since 2022 even with their recent success against Buffalo.

Spagnuolo knows that well, and he was asked about it several times over the past week.

“Try not to get them in those situations, right? That’s the best chance you have,” Spagnuolo told reporters during a media session earlier this week. “We’ll try to find a way to get as much big muscle in there as we can, and knock it back the other way, but they’re pretty good at it.”

While stopping these short-yard situations — and, as Spagnuolo stated, avoiding them altogether — wouldn’t completely stop these high-octane Eagles, whose offence is as star-studded as they come, it could force Philly’s hand in other directions. Not being able to rely on all four downs, for example, could result in more big-gain attempts down-field, and into a little more third-down urgency, all of which helps Kansas City’s defence dictate the pace and take a little control away from Hurts & Co.

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