Rubrik (RBRK) Earnings Live:

1. Channel Saturation and GTM Efficiency Pressure
Rubrik is scaling fast, but sales and marketing spend remains high. If CAC payback extends or sales cycles elongate — especially in regulated verticals — investors may question whether the growth is too expensive. High cash burn without operating leverage risks a rerating, even if ARR expands.

2. Competitive Intensity and Pricing Risk
Rubrik competes with Veeam, Cohesity, and emerging vendors — many with lower-cost backup offerings. While Rubrik has positioned itself as a premium, AI-native cyber recovery platform, pricing pressure could emerge in mid-market deals or renewals. Any sign of discounting or ASP compression would undercut gross margin confidence.

3. Reliance on Cloud Partnerships
Rubrik’s Microsoft and AWS integrations are strengths — but also dependencies. If those partners pivot product strategy, shift co-selling alignment, or prioritize their own tools, Rubrik’s funnel could be disrupted. Partner fatigue or shifting incentives are execution risks not fully priced in.

4. IPO Transition and Reporting Scrutiny
As a newly public company, Rubrik must now meet the rigor of quarterly financial scrutiny. Any inconsistency in disclosure, slippage in RPO, or misalignment between growth and margin could trigger outsized stock reactions. Execution discipline — not just topline growth — will define Rubrik’s post-IPO multiple.

1. ARR Growth Trajectory and Large Deal Mix
With ~$784M in ARR entering Q1, the Street expects Rubrik to exit FY25 on a ~$1B ARR run-rate. Key to this is continued growth in $1M+ ARR customers and large enterprise wins. Investors will be looking for sequential adds in that cohort, as well as commentary on deal cycles and retention.

2. Microsoft Partnership Activation
Rubrik’s GTM alignment with Microsoft — particularly around Azure and Office 365 data protection — is seen as a key differentiator. This quarter, investors want evidence that joint field activity is translating to pipeline conversion, particularly in mid-market and public sector verticals. Deal attribution commentary will be closely parsed.

3. Gross Margin Stability and Product Expansion
Last reported gross margin was 78%, among the highest in SaaS. If this holds or improves, it supports the long-term model of Rubrik as a profitable security platform. Management may offer commentary on adoption of new SKUs — including sensitive data classification and policy automation tools — which could lift ASP and reduce churn.

4. RPO Conversion and Billing Patterns
Rubrik’s RPO grew 55% YoY last reported, and Q1 is expected to show how much of that is converting to near-term revenue. Investors will track deferred revenue build and renewal velocity to assess whether the business is front-loaded or recurring. Clean billings execution would reinforce ARR confidence.

Q1 FY2025 Street Estimates:

• Revenue: $187.2M (+38% YoY)

• Adjusted EPS: –$0.33

• Gross Margin: ~78%

• Adj. EBITDA: –$32.4M

• ARR (prior disclosed): $784M

• Remaining Performance Obligations (RPO): $811M

Growth Metrics to Watch:

• $1M+ ARR Customers: 117 last reported (+66% YoY)

• Net Revenue Retention: ~120%

• Multi-product adoption rate: >50%

The Street expects Rubrik to sustain strong revenue momentum into Q2, with guide implications pointing to $200M+ quarterly run-rate before year-end. Analysts are looking for updates to customer count, upsell trends, and vertical-specific traction, particularly in public sector, healthcare, and regulated industries.

Cash burn will remain elevated — EBITDA losses are expected near $30M+ — but the focus is on narrowing those losses quarter over quarter while maintaining high ARR expansion and multi-product attach rates. Any progress toward FCF breakeven or improved CAC payback would be viewed as a sign of operational maturity.