Latest COLA Estimate vs. Medicare Part B Premiums: Net Gain or Loss?

There’s a reason seniors are often advised not to retire on Social Security alone. It can be very difficult to get by without other income.

If you earn an average wage, you can expect your monthly Social Security checks to replace around 40% of your pre-retirement income — that’s it.

There’s also the issue of Social Security COLAs, or cost-of-living adjustments, to consider. COLAs are supposed to help ensure that Social Security benefits are able to keep up with inflation. But historically, they’ve fallen short.

In 2023, the Senior Citizens League, an advocacy group, found that Social Security recipients had lost 36% of their buying power since 2000. And part of the reason is that COLAs are pegged to an inflation measure — the Consumer Price Index for Urban Wage Earners and Clerical Workers (CPI-W) — that doesn’t accurately reflect the costs Social Security recipients face.

The other issue is that seniors on Social Security who are also enrolled in Medicare pay for Part B coverage out of their benefits. So when the cost of Part B increases, it eats away at whatever raise they receive.

That’s what happened to Social Security beneficiaries in 2025. But will it happen again in 2026? Here’s what we know so far.

2026’s COLA estimate to date

Social Security COLAs are based on third quarter inflation readings. For this reason, it’s premature to determine what next year’s raise looks like.

The Senior Citizens League’s most recent estimate projects a 2.4% increase to Social Security benefits in 2026. This is based on the most recent reading of the CPI-W.

The COLA Social Security beneficiaries received at the start of 2025 was 2.5%, so a 2.4% COLA wouldn’t be remarkably different. But it’s too soon to bank on any specific COLA number given that tariff policies could cause a surge in inflation, leading to a more substantial Social Security raise next year.

What we know about Medicare Part B so far

At this stage of the game, it’s too soon to predict what Medicare Part B’s standard monthly premium will cost in 2026. The standard Part B premium was $174.70 per month in 2024, and it rose to $185 per month in 2025.

If there’s an increase of $10.30 in 2026, it would bring the standard monthly Part B premium up to $195.30. As far as a COLA impact goes, let’s assume the Senior Citizens League is correct, and that next year’s Social Security raise amounts to 2.4%.

The average monthly benefit today is just pennies below $2,000. A 2.4% COLA would result in a $48 monthly boost, on average. If we subtract a Part B increase of $10.30, it would have the average monthly Social Security benefit rising by about $38 in 2026. That would still be a net gain, albeit perhaps a smaller one than seniors would like.

Clearly, these numbers are all guesses at this point in time. But it does give seniors a loose framework to keep in mind.

Retirees who get most or all of their income from Social Security and are worried about a Part B premium hike eating into next year’s COLA should try to adjust their spending now to make up for it. Working or downsizing are other ways seniors with limited cash flow can gain more financial flexibility given the possibility for a relatively small 2026 COLA and a not-so-small Medicare Part B increase.

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