CIMB Securities revises up 2025 TIV forecast to 760k

Previously it foresaw 755,000 units; now CIMB Securities has revised its 2025 total industry volume (TIV) forecast slightly upwards to 760,000 units, Bernama reports. For the record, RHB Investment Bank predicts 730,000, Maybank Investment Bank Research 750,000, the Malaysian Automotive Association 780,000 and Kenanga Investment Bank 805,000.

Seemingly no mention was made of the postponement of OMV/402, which could make locally-assembled (CKD) cars cost 10-30% more, to January 2026, but CIMB Securities said in today’s research note that its latest forecast is primarily based on potential headwinds like the expected mid-year start of targeted RON 95 petrol subsidies.

“However, we anticipate resilient demand within the sub-RM100,000 segment, which remains dominated by national brands and select entry-level models from Japanese marques,” it said, adding that said segment made up at least 75% of TIV in 2024, with national brands taking over 80% of the segment, and Japanese and Chinese makes taking the rest, based on its estimations.

“We expect this demand to remain robust in 2025, supported by first-time car buyers, the December 2024 civil servants’ salary hike, and an accommodative interest rate environment maintained by Bank Negara Malaysia,” it said, adding that it also forecasts a relatively stable overnight policy rate (OPR) in 2025, which would join forces with the government’s plans to retain fuel subsidies for 85% of RON 95 users to maintain affordability in the mass-market segment.

“As a result, we expect national brands to maintain their dominance, capturing a projected 64.5% market share, compared with 35.5% for non-national brands in 2025,” it said, also mentioning a subdued growth outlook amidst heightening competition from Chinese brands.

Key catalysts are the strengthening of the ringgit against the US dollar and Japanese yen, a reduction in interest rates and favourable government policies aimed at reviving domestic demand, CIMB Securities said, adding that Sime Darby remains a top sector pick owing to its earnings-accretive acquisition of UMW Holdings, growing exposure to Australia’s mining sector, and potential monetisation of non-core and land bank assets.

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